For those who feared Obama could hurt his standing among the African American voters by his endorsement of same-sex marriage, it appears the opposite is happening: Obama is dragging the black community over to his side.

A new Public Policy Poll shows a marked increase in the support of same-sex marriage in Maryland, an increase almost entirely attributable to the sharp turnaround on the issue among African Americans. Maryland has same-sex marriage up for referendum in the fall, and its passage, which seems all but assured, would make the state the first in the nation to ratify gay marriage by ballot rather than legislature or appeals court. 

"If these numbers hold," Ta-Nehisis Coates says over at the Atlantic, it "will be a major statement. It would not simply mean that same-sex marriage held by a majority vote, but that it did so in one of the blackest states in the country."

Until recently, black communities have remained staunchly against same-sex marriage even as other demographics softened toward the issue. Increased African American turnout for Obama in California in 2008 likely put Prop 8 over the top, and blacks accounted for a large part of the victory of Amendment One in North Carolina three weeks ago.

That was three weeks ago. Since then, Barack Obama has endorsed same-sex marriage, with the NAACP following closely behind. The nation was trending toward same-sex marriage anyway, but such a huge swing in a specific demographic suggests that Obama's announcement was cataclysmic.  

Via PPP: 

-The movement over the last two months can be explained almost entirely by a major shift in opinion about same-sex marriage among black voters. Previously 56% said they would vote against the new law with only 39% planning to uphold it. Those numbers have now almost completely flipped, with 55% of African Americans planning to vote for the law and only 36% now opposed. 

-The big shift in attitudes toward same-sex marriage among black voters in Maryland is reflective of what’s happening nationally right now.  A new ABC/Washington Post poll finds 59% of African Americans across the country supportive of same-sex marriage.  A PPP poll in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania last weekend found a shift of 19 points in favor of same-sex marriage among black voters.  

A lot of progressives poo-poohed Obama's same-sex marriage endorsement as meaningless. PoliticOlogy pointed out at the time how shortsighted that was. Looks like PoliticOlogy was right. What Obama can't accomplish legislatively over same-sex marriage, he can accomplish two-fold in his change of mainstream attitudes over the issue. It's less likely that he suddenly changed so many peoples' minds as a good portion of the African American community was probably ready as he was to accept same-sex marriage, and were just waiting for some society-wide permission of the type Obama just gave.

We all knew Obama was playing the long game, we just thought the long game would take longer than three weeks. 

[Note: the amateur empiricst in me feels compelled to add that no causal connection has actually been established between Obama's announcement and the shift in African American attitudes toward same-sex marriage; it could have happened anyway. But if anybody has any countervailing theory, I'd love to hear it.]

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Comments (2)

J Cato: Good piece, Evan. As a member of the Black community, I've always found it curious the way our segment of the population is/was depicted as staunchly opposed to anything same-sex. Indeed, there's a strong conservative element stemming from the Bible/Christian influence, but in my experience I've found that the Black community has always had a passive acceptance of homosexuality. Go into any "fire and brimstone" church, and you'll hear "gay is a sin" but see at least three gay men leading the congregation in some capacity. "Gay" as a concept may not sit well or conflict with the older, more conservative members of our community, but "gay" as a reality has typically been embraced without a second thought. Speaking broadly, there are too many bigger concerns for Blacks, both individually and as a community, for them to be too caught up in gay legislation progress and the "implications" of allowing two men to marry. I've never been polled about my stance on gay marriage, but I know I've never had strong views on it. My view, more or less, has been “what's the big deal? What will be will be.” Assuming the same for the majority of Blacks, I could see how if one was asked if they were for or against same-sex marriage, he or she might default to being against, because at least that answer is in line with their supposed Christian views. Ultimately though, I believe most Blacks don't care or have enough of an opinion on the issue to be ACTIVELY for or against anything. Gay marriage isn’t something that will significantly impact their day-to-day, so why lose sleep over it? To focus my point, I'm saying that the widely purported anti-gay marriage view of the Black community is based on shallow poll results - answers of convenience. I believe that for many Blacks, stating that they are opposed to same-sex marriage was just a quick, surface answer given to a poller or reporter whom they had never met, didn't know, and would never see again. Yes, it's bad that the Black community would allow the “convenient answer” to perpetuate what some consider to be a violation of civil rights. Nevertheless, as the media is DISCOVERING, the real Black view on the issue is by no means as immovable or ingrained as once thought. *The statements in this comment are gross generalizations, I know. hah

May 26, 2012

Bison Messink: Having Jay-Z also speak strongly in favor of gay marriage right after Obama was a big deal too. I suspect you're right that there were a lot of people were ready to be in favor of gay marriage, if there was an acceptable social framework for them to do so fully and publicly. Jay-Z was probably one of those people, and a lot of people were ready to follow his lead as well. It's a bit of a chicken/egg scenario.

May 25, 2012

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