Somewhere in a rented office in Washington, D.C., someone must be developing Hillary's Law, a formula by which we can predict the frequency of recommendations that Barack Obama dump Joe Biden and pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate.
We last heard this theory bandied about by Bill Keller, who, with each column, makes it seem more and more unbelievable that he once stewarded the most important newspaper in the world. Bill Kristol—who, with each column, makes it seem more and more unbelievable that he's the son of a legitimate intellectual—takes up the cause today, arguing:
For our part, we’d like to see a decisive triumph for Romney and his running mate over two formidable representatives of contemporary liberalism, rather than a discounted victory over a flawed ticket with only one strong candidate. So we sincerely suggest to President Obama: Dump Joe Biden.
Here's the thing about the Biden/Hillary switcheroo theory that pops up every two months or so like a rash: it's rarely sincere. If there were people out there who legitimately believed that it would be in a) Obama's, b) the Democrats', and c) the country's interests for Obama to call in a middle relief pitcher, I'd give the argument a full airing, if nothing than for curiosity's sake.
But the people pushing this are never serious. Bill Keller did it because Bill Keller seems like the type of guy who stands in a supermarket aisle comparing ketchup and catsup. Bill Kristol, as Gin and Tacos points out, is concern trolling: he's pretending to be serious to stir up the Democrats and make them argue about something that doesn't matter. In short, he's treating the Letter From The Editor page at the Weekly Standard like his own personal internet chatroom.
Because PoliticOlogy reads stuff before bashing it, here are Kristol's arguments:
We’re sure the thought has occurred to the president. He knows his undisciplined vice president did him no service by popping off about same-sex marriage on Meet the Press, thereby forcing Obama to engage the issue prematurely. Instead of making his announcement of his evolution in a well-prepared speech for which the groundwork had been laid, the president arranged a rushed interview in which he rather inarticulately expressed his personal view in a way that persuaded no one who wasn’t already convinced. This wasn’t good for him.
Raise your hand if you think Obama's handling of gay marriage was premature, as opposed to three years behind. Thought so. Next?
In a Fox News poll last week, President Obama had a 52 percent favorable to 44 percent unfavorable rating. Vice President Biden’s numbers in the same poll were 41 percent favorable to 44 percent unfavorable. In other words, Biden will clearly be a drag on Obama’s fortunes this fall.
This would be true if elections were decided by national vote, which they're not. Biden has high approval ratings among certain voters, especially white blue collar voters; one of the reasons he was selected in the first place is that he can say the words "commuter train" without washing his hands. Think Mitt Romney can do that? Thought so. Next?
Who should replace Biden? Everyone knows the answer. Hillary Clinton received nearly 18 million votes in the race for the 2008 Democratic nomination. Her rating in a Washington Post survey a couple of weeks ago was 65 percent favorable, 27 percent unfavorable. Biden hurts Obama. She would help him.
As Gin and Tacos responds in his slightly more full-throated critique of Kristol's arguments, this is nonsense: Hillary has a high approval rating because she's not a candidate, which tends to have a polarizing effect on a person; see, for instance, the difference between Obama's approval rating and his favorability rating. Hillary also has a high approval rating because she choreographed a rather stunning exit from the 2008 presidential race: remember that 18 million cracks in the glass ceiling speech? Pretty awesome, wasn't it? You don't get to make barnburner speeches on feminist victories when you're on a ticket. Next?
Nope, that's it. In reality, the dump-Biden meme rests on a SNL-level stereotype of Biden as a bad politician. The irony of this stereotype is that it undermines what we constantly say we want from politicians: sincerity, spontaneity, a convincing feeling that there isn't a focus-group filter between their brains and their mouths. Biden's got this, and we punish him for it. He's also been in the Senate since before your yoga instructor was born, and is now Vice President. That's a good enough record to cause a rethinking of his stereotype as a buffoon.
By the by, if you're ever tempted to take Bill Kristol seriously, remember that he was one of Sarah Palin's earliest, and longest, backers, up to and including suggesting as recently as five months ago that she should run for the GOP nomination. This is not a man you should listen to about anything.
Next?
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