[By PoliticOlogy writer David Barnett.]
Gearing up for the Supreme Court’s ruling in June on the Affordable Care Act, Republicans have started to prepare their next plan of action. But it has nothing to do with health care reform, and everything to do with good ole’ politicking (GOP).
Politico reported recently that the Republican leadership was planning to keep the popular, "consumer-friendly" parts of Obama’s Affordable Care Act in the case that the act is partially or fully overturned in the Supreme Court. To avoid disastrous political fallout, John Boehner was planning to keep the following measures: letting adult children stay on parents heath care plans until age 26, urging (rather forcefully) insurance companies to extend coverage to people with pre-existing conditions, and closing the Medicare "donut hole."
But in a not-so-private private Google email group (called The Repeal Coalition) this week, Boehner and his leadership staff faced intense criticism for his plans, which, hours before, had seemed to be politically neutral. In some heated online in-fighting, activists in the conservative right, GOP leadership staffers, think-tank-people and health care policy staffers are bickering about the repercussions of upholding any provisions in what they call "Obamacare."
Health care is a sensitive issue that requires Juliard-worthy political tip-toeing. For many on the right, politicking is a zero-sum game in which compromise is not an option, and accepting some of the reforms in the health care law would akin to treachery.
Yet some of the provisions in the Affordable Care Act are popularly accepted as useful reforms beneficial for the country and the economy. Even more than that, analysts in Bloomberg’s government have estimated a $1 trillion loss in revenue if Obama’s Affordable Care Act is ruled unconstitutional in June. Most of that will come from the 16 million Americans that analysts expect to buy health care on the individual market. Bloated or not, that figure represents huge cost that has to be curbed in some form or fashion.
This leaves the GOP in a pickle. If the Republicans make no plans to keep the popular portions of Obama’s health care law, they will face wide, external political fallout. If, however, they do the opposite, there will suffer severe internal political fallout. It has yet to be seen which is more dangerous.
Avik Roy, a Forbes columnist and Manhattan Institute scholar, was quoted as saying that some of the provisions Boehner planned to keep "would destroy the private insurance market." Roy’s voice represents one of many outside groups, like Americans for Tax Reform, Heritage Action and Club for Growth, that pose a problem for GOP members on Capitol Hill. Endowed with seemingly unlimited funds, these groups also provide an endless stream of judgments that generate intense opposition and support.
Boehner has had little to say about the political in-fighting beyond, "Our plan remains to repeal the law in its entirety. Anything short of that is unacceptable."
"Remain" is good word to use, but it hardly applies to the plan to repeal ObamaCare in its entirety. The only thing that has "remained" is the persistent fear of political fallout—internal and external.
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