Today's New York Times/CBS* poll, the first takes since Obama's endorsement of gay marriage, shows a tightening race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, and some a mixed bag of reactions to the president's announcement.
First, the important (ahem) stuff: Romney leads Obama 46-43, well within the poll's +/- 4 margin of error. Obama's approval rating is at 50%, its highest since he sent bin Laden to Virginland, but his disapproval rating is also its highest ever, at 48. Obama's favorability ratings are split at 45. Romney's favorability ratings are 31/38, which means the nation's opinion of Romney is still up for grabs.
The bad news for Obama for all of those numbers: this poll skewed slightly Democrat, and he still is only even against Romney or his own disapproval rating, suggesting that independent voters, who made up 1/3 of the group, are still leaning away from him.
Now, does you assholes support gay marriage or not? Well, that depends on how the question is asked. When asked whether respondents supported gay marriage, civil unions, or no recognition, gay marriage wins, 38/23/33, respectively. Take civil unions out of that equation, and gay marriage loses 42/51, suggesting that many of those who support civil union are not yet willing to extend full marriage benefits to same-sex couples. When push comes to shove, they still think same-sex marriage should be illegal.
The poll also found no bounce for Obama for his endorsement of same-sex marriage. A whopping 67% of respondents thought he made the announcement for political reasons. (Though, as PoliticOlogy pointed out yesterday, it was the three years of hemming and evolving that was done for political reasons, not the announcement itself.)
For all that, most respondents said his announcement will make no difference as to whether they'll vote for him. More respondents said the announcement will make them less likely to vote for him than more, 26/16. For Romney, the numbers were slightly reversed, with 21% saying his opposition to same-sex marriage make them more likely to vote for him, as opposed to 17%. While these numbers would seem a boost to Romney, they may also represent a trap: Romney would like to stay away from campaigning against a civil right and focus on the economy, but the more fervently his base cries DOMA-this and marriage amendment-that, the more Romney will have to wade into the anti-gay sewer.
Speaking of DOMA, a full 50% of respondents said they would favor a constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage, while 57% said they think the issue should be a state matter, suggesting 7% of people out there either don't understand that those two are mutually exclusive, or that 7% have been well conditioned to rear up any time states' rights are threatened, even when it's their own views that are doing the threatening.
Perhaps the most interesting takeaway of the poll: 42% support legalizing same-sex marriage. The exact same percentage of respondents reported knowing a gay or lesbian couple. The Times didn't provide any breakdown data, so it's impossible to determine the overlap between those two groups, but we can assume a pretty extensive one. It sure seems that support for gay marriage goes up in direct proportion to the amount you know the person being affected by the issue. Those who oppose gay marriage are opposing rights to hypothetical people, and might just be a gay coworker away from changing their minds.
(* Sorry, links not working.)
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