Mitt Romney has a crucial test coming up in the Paycheck Fairness Act, which the Senate votes on next month: will he stick by his party, which rigidly opposes new restrictions regulating pay equity, or will he try to wrench Senate Republicans into the passing the bill and hope to gain a bit of headway with female voters in the process?
The Paycheck Fairness Act updates the 1963 Equal Pay Act by strengthening requirements for employers to demonstrate that wage disparities are not gender-based; increasing legal options for women to contest unequal pay; and protecting employees who share salary information. A similar bill was defeated by Senate Republicans two years ago, and Scott Walker recently repealed a cognate law in Wisconsin. Romney is now the putative leader of those Senate Republicans, and he's called Walker a "hero."
BUT—and there's always a but with Romney—he's walked a tight line in discussing pay equity, arguing that he supports equal pay for women (give this man a cookie) and has no intention of messing with the 2009 Lily Ledbetter Act that reinforced equal pay protections. BUT—and there's always two buts with Romney—he has not said whether he would have passed the Ledbetter Act in the first place, suggesting he's only okay with equal pay provisions because they're the current path of least resistance.
As Greg Sargeant points out, the Paycheck Fairness Act is the perfect wire to trip up Romney's two-step:
The Romney campaign, in its pitch for female voters, has argued that women don’t care about social issues as much as they do about jobs, and that pocketbook issues will ultimately drive the female vote. But the Paycheck Fairness Act is a gender issue that’s all about the pocketbook and the economy.
He's dead on: this hits Romney right in his pivot. There's no "but-but-but JOBS" out for Romney on this issue, because it's about jobs. And Romney can't simultaneously knock Obama's record on women's job creation on one day and argue for gender-based wage disparity the next. (Well...he can, but...)
The Act also undermines some of Romney's monolithic anti-regulatory argument. What happens to the formula of government-restrictions-hinder-job-creation when those regulations protect the employees whose jobs are so crucial? The PFA punctures the anti-regulatory argument so perfectly because very necessity of regulating pay equity suggests a governmental role in business, in the same way that talking about crime implies police: it's not whether government is necessary, but how much and in what manner. The onus is now on Romney not to decry government's role in business but to delineate it: how much should government protect workers from discriminatory workplace policies? How much should the free market be allowed to determine salaries if the outcome of that process is discriminatory? To what extent should all workers' wages be secure, and what interest does the government have in securing them?
In answering those questions for the first time, Romney might find that ideological explanations break down on details like waves on the rocks. Meanwhile, the rest of us could finally discover what Romney thinks about the intersection of government and commerce when "all regulation is bad" is not an applicable option.
Public opinion is on the Democrats' side on this issue, and they're going to make Romney explain every inch of this bill he doesn't wholeheartedly support. The ads practically write themselves: clip of Romney saying he supports equal pay, clip of him arguing against Paycheck Fairness, tagline: Which Romney Can Women Trust? and everybody gets a badly-made negroni before happy hour ends.
And Romney has everything to gain from taking up the charge of the PFA. He's almost ludicrously behind Obama in women voters, including women voters in swing states, and on every issue. (Deficit reduction, the one issue Romney wins, is a dude thing.) He's unlikely to win women in November, but he needs to close at least some of this gap to be an electoral threat. Coming over on this issue would also do a lot to soften his more rightwing primary positions: nothing peels off the "severely conservative" band-aid like standing up for women, workers and government regulation all at the same time.
If Romney can draft some sort of compromise, and get his Senate Republicans to go along with it, he'll look like the leader of the party that until recently didn't much care for him. But that's a big if. Congressional Republicans are all about denying Obama and Democrats victories, especially in the next few months. They're not going to be excited about handing this one over. If Romney attempts to broker an agreement with Mitch McConnell and The Obstructionist Turtles and fails, he'll look like he has no control over the party he's supposedly leading. But if he backs up his Senate counterparts in their ossification against progressive pay laws, he'll gain nothing but a Rand Paul Bobblehead.
What's a Mitt to do? One thing's for sure: there will be at least two buts.
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Follow: Evan McMurry @evanmcmurry | PoliticOlogy @OlogyPolitics
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