The inevitable announcement that The CW’s hit series The Vampire Diaries was given a season four pickup came yesterday with shock and surprise from absolutely no one. It’s the network’s most-watched program, its stars are smoldering, and the dark vamp drama is one of the only series on The CW that gets credibility for actually being a good program, despite the fact that, you know, it’s on The CW. But when your network’s most-watched program is only pulling in 2 million viewers a week, and all of your other shows easily hover in the 1 million area, decisions can very fickly made as to which series will be brought back, and which ones will be given the cut.
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A lot of fan favorites could be in trouble as The CW’s May 17th Upfronts presentations approach, where all decisions are final. Since The Vampire Diaries, America’s Next Top Model, Supernatural, and 90210 have already been picked up for new seasons, and One Tree Hill just finished its series finale, we take a look at six other shows on the network that you might see again next year… or not. Our bets are based on both yearly ratings (up until May) and what’s in the pipe to come for the fall.
Show: The Secret Circle
Seasons: 1
2011-2012 Ratings: 0.79 in the adults 18-49 demo, 1.89 million weekly viewers
Why it could be renewed: Those ratings mean that it’s the biggest success of The CW’s freshman series by a pretty good margin, followed closest by Hart of Dixie. The pairing of Diaries and Circle is the closest thing to a weekly staple that the network has, with the two shows being so closely related (both are book adaptations, both involve witchcraft, both have gorgeous casts), and the network might not want to break that up so soon.
Why it could be canceled: Where it’s held in the respectable 0.7-0.8 range for most of the year, its past four episodes have been the worst performers yet, sinking to as low as a 0.5 in the demo and struggling to top 1.4 million, a number it was easily besting before the end of March. It’s not holding the audience that Nikita did in the previous year, and it’s not a movable option; there’s an incredibly low chance of Circle working in a slot other than Thursday at 9pm, with a big chunk of viewers being Vampire Diaries runoff. Plus, there are quite a few other darker dramas in development—including Cult, which will star Vampire Diaries’ Matt Davis, and the Green Arrow superhero saga Arrow—that could fill Circle’s void if it were to be replaced. It’s still their biggest success of the year, but if the network reads Circle’s latest digits as viewers losing interest, Chance Harbor might be in some real danger, and Cult might take the open space.
Prediction: Renewed. UPDATE: OFFICIALLY CANCELED.
Show: Gossip Girl
Seasons: 5
2011-2012 Ratings: 0.60 in the demo, 1.20 million weekly viewers
Why it could be renewed: Gossip Girl is one of the shows most synonymous with the network; a CW without Gossip Girl truly means the end of an era.
Why it could be canceled: The 90210 renewal does not bode well at all for Gossip Girl. Last year’s separation of the two (both were together on Mondays for the 2010 TV season) could be seen as a way to try and double up on good ratings and figure out which one of them was the more valuable series, and where 90210 anchors Tuesdays with a 0.7, Gossip Girl has been doing slightly worse, pulling a 0.5 for six of its last nine episodes. We found it highly unlikely for the network to keep both series for a while, and if 90210 is definitely coming back, Gossip Girl might not. Plus, Sex and the City spinoff The Carrie Diaries looks like the perfect replacement.
Prediction: Canceled. UPDATE: OFFICIALLY RENEWED.
Show: Nikita
Seasons: 2
2011-2012 Ratings: 0.52 in the demo, 1.60 million weekly viewers
Why it could be renewed: Friday series operate on a different grading scale for shows airing on the other four nights of the week, so a 0.5 for the show really could do a lot more damage.
Why it could be canceled: Friday series are also the most disposable if they don’t have a cult-like following in the way that Supernatural does and Smallville did. Ratings are down horribly from last year when it aired it the Thursday 9pm post-Vampire Diaries slot and earned a 0.9 for the year with 2.37 million viewers, so it’s only retained a little more than half that demo, and hasn’t kept even half of the Smallville viewers for its first—and probably only—year in the slot. Detective drama Beauty & The Beast, which conveniently stars Smallville alum Kristin Kreuk, is looking mighty appealing.
Prediction: Canceled. UPDATE: OFFICIALLY RENEWED.
Show: The L.A. Complex
Seasons: 1
2011-2012 Ratings: 0.30 in the demo, 630,000 weekly viewers
Why it could be renewed: Just hear us out on this one: the show, which is a Canadian original that is simply rebroadcast on The CW and not a CW original series, has already been renewed in its homeland for a second season that’s double the length. But with its premiere episode being the lowest-rated debut of any television show in the history of ratings, and the subsequent numbers not getting any better, the chances of The CW picking up those new eps is extremely slim. But with their serious desire to get into summer programming and no other options currently on the table, you never know.
Why it could get canceled: Let’s just say that one more time: lowest-rated debut of any television show in the history of ratings.
Prediction: Canceled.
Show: Hart of Dixie
Seasons: 1
2011-2012 Ratings: 0.65 in the demo, 1.59 million weekly viewers
Why it could be renewed: Rachel Bilson must be doing something right, as Hart of Dixie is the second-best performing new series on the network. Even though numbers have naturally sunk as the season has gone on, to start at a 0.8 (and 1.88 million viewers) for the premiere episode and to still have a sizeable piece of that audience (this week’s episode was a 0.6 and 1.39 million viewers) shows that this—to some degree—is working. It’s not like Secret Circle, which has shed from a 1.3 premiere; it’s rather dependable.
Why it could be canceled: 0.6s and 0.8s aren’t breakout numbers, however, and if the network is feeling ballsy and decides to axe the series, it could make the room needed for a bigger success. Dakota is a dramedy currently in development with a female lead (as well as the studly Craig Horner), and if there’s only room for one funny soap, it could go either way.
Prediction: Renewed. UPDATE: OFFICIALLY RENEWED.
Show: Ringer
Seasons: 1
2011-2012 Ratings: 0.61 in the demo, 1.49 million weekly viewers
Why it could be renewed: This is a tough call: The CW has put a hell of a lot into Ringer, and nabbing Sarah Michelle Gellar of Buffy fame, who’s something of a teen drama goddess, was really meant to carry the series alone. Even with so-so ratings, there’s a possibility that they give this show another chance just for the hell of it, but move it to a different night. It’s Sarah Michelle Freaking Gellar, for Christ’s sakes.
Why it could be canceled: Ringer’s demo ratings in 2012 are bad, man. They’re just bad: overall viewers could be worse, but February, March, and April saw a lot of 0.4s, and the first season finale only grabbed a 0.5, with just 1.2 million viewers. Plus, Hellcats poorly performed in the exact same timeslot last year, and that wasn’t good news for them.
Prediction: Canceled. UPDATE: OFFICIALLY CANCELED.
Other shows you can expect to never see again: Say goodbye to Mario Lopez’s celeb-reality series H8R and model agency doc Remodeled.
Shows you can definitely look forward to: All currently still in development and ordered to pilot, but very likely to keep proceeding if they test well, so expect them to become your new favorites when they replace your old ones: DC Comics’ Arrow, Sex And The City revamp The Carrie Diaries, creepy crime drama Cult, and yet another book adaptation—though the books actually haven’t been released yet—with a Hunger Games meets Bachelor twist called The Selection.
What do you think of our predictions? Let us know in the comments below.
[Ratings source: TV Series Finale]
Follow Terron R. Moore on Twitter: @cityfitch
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