Primaries! Stay excited people, there's still plenty of politics to obsess over, as New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Delaware and Connecticut vote tonight in the GOP presidential primary for a total of 231 delegates. (Don't knock it; that's 10% of the total.) Mitt Romney is the presumptive nominee, but he hasn't won over his party yet, Gingrich still might pull off an upset, Ron Paul is gearing up the protest vote, and a showdown between a Blue Dog and a labor-backed challenger in PA might decide the Democrats' election year narrative.
Here's a rundown of what to watch for, and don't forget to join PoliticOlogy for updates.
1) How much of the vote does Romney get?
Polls taken just after Santorum dropped out of the race suggested that the Republican Party was coalescing quickly around the presumptive nominee, despite a tepid showing for Romney in the primaries. But I can tell a pollster my skin is orange and I'm gonna vote Donald Trump; voters still have to make good on their hypothetical preferences on election day. If we see other candidates getting decent percentages of the vote tonight, it might indicate that an anti-Romney sentiment still simmers in the GOP base, suggesting problems for the candidate down the road.
2) How many votes does Romney get?
This will be the most interesting factor. Many election watchers, including PoliticOlogy, predicted that a fierce Pennsylvania primary would be good for the GOP by rallying the base and installing a competitive ground organization in a state where the Obama campaign is already prolific. The more Romney, Santorum, et al, knocked on doors, hit the phones, and collected voter info, the better prepared they would be come the general.
With Santorum gone, though, there's little impetus for Romney supporters to get out the vote (he's been trying anyway). PA is a swing state—in 2004, it just barely split for Kerry—and the winner of its 20 electoral votes could very well come down to who gets more voters to ballot box in November. A lack of excitement translating to a lack of ground organization now could cost the GOP the state in November. About 834,000 people voted in the 2008 Pennsylvania GOP primary, with most breaking for McCain but with Huckabee and Paul still bringing out about 200,000 supporters; if PA's total is below this today, that's trouble for the GOP.
3) Where does the anti-Romney vote go?
Ron Paul is the obvious ideological counterpoint to Romney, but Paul is the only candidate who has yet to realize an anti-Romney surge. Gingrich got his in South Carolina and Santorum strung together 11 victories despite being an unexceptional candidate. But Santorum's gone and Gingrich is running on fumes. Is it Paul's turn? He got 4,300 people to attend his rainy rally the other day, though PoliticOlogy believes Paul's high event turnout represents the ceiling of his support.
If Paul can pull off strong second place victories on Tuesday night, he'll gain some momentum going into Texas and California, where the campaign has put much of its energy. The more delegates Paul earns (as opposed to swiping by stacking the delegate selection process) the stronger a voice he'll be at Tampa.
4) Will Gingrich drop out?
Gingrich has slashed his staff, his big budget donors have taken their oversized novelty wallets elsewhere, he's getting terrorized by college journalists, and he's all but mathematically eliminated from the contest. Word has been squeaking out that Gingrich might pull off a Delaware upset, which really sounds like a sexual position, but even if he did, what good would it do him? Delaware has 17 total delegates, and is Biden's state anyway. We may finally bid adieu to the panda poet tomorrow morning.
5) Who wins PA-12's democratic primary?
Pennsylvania redistricting drew together two Democrats, Mark Critz and Jason Altmire, pitting them against each other for the primary win. Altmire had the larger share of the district, but Critz has gotten support of a wide array of union groups, who backed Altmire, a Blue Dog, in 2006 and felt betrayed when he voted against the Affordable Care Act. Whoever wins, however, still faces a strong Republican opponent in a county that voted for John McCain in 2008 general (though one Crystal Ball has the race as leaning blue).
If Altmire is ousted, it could suggest that labor is set up to play an important role in swing states, that Obama's populist message is taking hold, and that calls for the Democrats to pull center in the general are overheated.
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What do you think a Delaware upset means? Hit the comments section below.
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