The New York Times reports that the Romney campaign plans to raise a combined $1 billion to defeat Barack Obama in the general election. The plan comprises $800 million from the campaign itself, and another $200 from outside groups and Super PACs.
The real significant figure, though, is the breakdown between large and small donors. Obama's historically successful 2008 fundraising campaign was notable for the fact that half of its record-breaking $747.8 million total came from contributions of $200 or under. By contrast, John McCain raised only $70 million from small donors, which accounted for a much smaller percentage of his total fundraising. (Nerds, go ye here.)
Thus far, the Romney campaign has raised only 12% of its funds from small donors ($9 million of a total $73 million so far). The campaign hopes to increase this percentage, projecting $500 million from large donors and $300 million in small donations (hence the $800 million figure above).
The political optics here are most important. Obama used his small donation figure to portray his 2008 campaign as a groundswell. This helped his message that he was taking back Washington from special interests, Wall Street, Bush cronies, and so forth, on behalf of the people. It never hurts when your fundraising figues dovetail with your election message.
This could be a problem for Romney, a former takeover artist who already has an issue with coming off as buying elections. The Democrats are salivating for a chance to paint Romney as a wealthy shark who is only running for president to further fix the economy for his rich friends. The more Romney raises in large donations, the more he fits this image exactly. It's the opposite of Obama's 2008 harmony between message and fundraising: Romney's fundraising highlights the worst of his political image.
Of course, the Obama campaign will likely hit $1 billion, too, though they deny the figure, partially to keep expectations low so as to beat them, and partially because they worry that the Romney campaign is pushing this huge total to keep low-level donors complacent. Nonetheless, the Obama campaign continues to benefit from small donations: the campaign raised $53 million in March, with an average donation $50. This will allow them to continue their groundswell-based messaging against Romney's fat cat donors, which means the billion dollars that Romney raises could, in the end, help defeat him.
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Follow: Evan McMurry @evanmcmurry | PoliticOlogy @OlogyPolitics
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