A new poll argues that Obama's election-season message of fairness in the tax code — led by the so-called Buffet Rule, which raises taxes on those making $1 million or more — is the wrong route to swing voter dominance.
The survey, from Democratic centrist group Third Way, focused heavily on independent swing voters, and found that they leaned toward Obama. According to the data, were the election held today, Obama would win the swing voters 44 to 38 over Romney. But the survey then had the swing voters place themselves and the two candidates on a 1 to 9 ideological spectrum (1 = Think Progress, 9 = Red State), and found that swing voters (at 5.21) were closer ideologically to Romney (6.09) than they were to Obama (3.91).
In other words, Third Way found a masterful way of showing that Obama needs to shift more to the center, by exactly .42 ideological specturm points, or whatever they are. The survey then goes on to neatly nudge the swing voters into preferring a message of opportunity over one of fairness, thus showing the way for Obama to close the .42 gap: by focusing on debt reduction, which would theoretically stimulate the economy, as opposed to fairness in taxation, which is seen by some as hampering private sector growth.
This survey has met with a stinging round of criticism, especially as its conclusion — that Obama and Democrats avoid issues of fairness in taxation in favor of deficit reduction — dovetails so neatly with Third Way's message of limp centrism. Given that the survey shows Obama winning with swing voters after six months' of populist rhetoric, it seems odd that Third Way would recommend he ditch such tactics and attempt to coopt ideological ground from Republicans. In fact, it could just as easily be argued from the data that Obama is slowly pulling swing voters away from the right side of the spectrum, where they were last seen in 2010, toward a message of income equalization (see Jamelle Bouie's graph below).
Ed Kilgore has the best takedown of Third Way's survey. Kilgore argues that running from talk of fairness cedes the issue of fair taxation to conservatives, all to claim a tiny sliver of the electorate that Obama is already winning:
The advice offered in this paper really does live down to the negative reputation of Democratic “centrists” as people willing to make major concessions to conservative policy preferences in order to achieve very small advantages among very small groups of swing voters. It’s not worth it morally or politically.
In fact, embracing the issue of fairness may actually help Obama with swing voters. Jamelle Boiue at the American Prospect picks out a question from a new ABC News/Washington Post poll and holds it to the light:
In the poll, they ask voters for their thoughts on the “biggest problem facing the country,” and offer a choice—“unfairness in the economic system that favors the wealthy, or over-regulation of the free market that interferes with growth and prosperity.” By a large margin, 52 to 37, voters said that unfairness was the biggest problem facing the country. I’m not a believer in the power of the bully pulpit, but this seems to lend credence to the view that—after more than six months of populist rhetoric and attacks on “you’re on your own” economics—Obama has pulled both the public and the economic narrative in his direction.
This isn't quite as airtight as Bouie makes it sound. Obama is ahead of Romney in numerous demographics, especially women, and does win the above question about fairness over regulation. But burrow down a bit further into the numbers, and Obama is found to be trailing among those hurt by the economy. Via the Atlantic:
But look at the people who have been the most unfairly treated by the economy -- those who are having trouble finding a job or worried about falling out of the middle class -- and they are leaning towards Republicans. Obama has trails Romney among voters in the poll who say jobs are hard to find in their area (Obama gets 33 percent support), think the country is still in recession (43 percent) and say that they are struggling to remain in the middle class (35 percent).
It's entirely possible that these demographics will rebel against an actual GOP candidate, especially when that candidate is a walking Black Fleece ad with a penchant for sticking his leather loafers in his mouth. And the ABC/WaPo poll notes that "Romney holds a double-digit lead over Obama on just one issue tested in the poll: who would better deal with the federal budget deficit." In other words, Obama is doing well with every message except one, and doing well in a whole heap of demographics. His campaign would have to be extremely insecure to ditch its current narrative all to get ahead of Romney on one issue and with limited demographics.
Instead, Obama is set to make a speech on the Buffet Rule on Tuesday, doubling down on the issue of fairness. It won't move him .42 on the ideological spectrum — but it might move the spectrum toward him.
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Related: Poll: Obama Opens Up Huge Lead With Women Voters
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