Here is a 2012 prediction: you will hate hearing about Wisconsin by November. Why, you ask? Because from the recall of Gov. Scott Walker to the open Senate race to the general election, this state will be at the center of many ideological proxy battles.
The battle for Wisconsin has already begun in the form of the Republican primary. A New Marquette Law School poll shows this race is tight between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 39 to 31 percent support in the Badger State.
In Wisconsin, which has not voted Republican in a national election since 1984, a snapshot of the general election appears to suggest a competitive race between Romney and President Obama. The president leads Romney with 48 to 43 percent – Romney is, however, the only candidate in the Republican race who drives Obama below the critical 50 percent threshold.
In Wisconsin’s upcoming recall election, the Democratic primary race appears to be Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett’s to lose although the race is tightening quickly. Barrett leads state former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk with 36 to 29 percent.
Walker faced Barrett in 2010 and won the gubernatorial election with 52 to 47 percent of the vote. In this Marquette poll, Walker leads Barrett with 47 to 45 percent (he leads Falk with 49 to 45 percent). Barrett could be aided by the dramatically reduced turnout that would vote in a June special recall election, but that will be determined by a number of factors well down the road.
As of today, Walker has a job approval rating to 50 to 45 percent. Scott Walker’s job approval has been on the uptick for several weeks. For most of 2011, Walker’s job approval was substantially under water but today he regularly enjoys a positive job approval ranking.
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Follow Noah Rothman @Noah_C_Rothman
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