Marquette is fresh off gutsy win over a Murray State squad that lost one game all year. The Golden Eagles held both the Racers and BYU to a combined 11-40 from behind the arc, doing so with the intensity of a Final Four worthy group.
After knocking off the #2 seed Missouri, Norfolk State's Cinderella run got shot down like a dude using a pre-thought out pickup line. Florida straight waxed them off the court, giving them their second beatdown in as many games.
Marquette Will Beat Florida Because:
Rational Reasoning
Florida ranks #218 in the country in scoring inside the arc, meaning they struggle to score easy buckets. With a three guard lineup, they remain one of the most three-point happy teams in the nation, ranking 3rd in attempts per game. While they shoot 38% from downtown, Marquette's Darious Johnson-Odom and Vander Blue are both excellent perimeter defenders. They hold opponents to just 31% shooting from three, while making it difficult for any dribble penetration to occur.
Marquette also dresses the Big East Player of the Year in Jae Crowder, who's proven to be a matchup mystery that no team has solved. For now I'm going to assume that Patric Young is going to stick him. With Crowder's ability to play on the perimeter, this could draw Young away from the rim and open up rebounding opportunities for Marquette's undersized front line. The further Young is from the basket, the better the odds of Marquette converting.
Irrational Reasoning
It just seems like Buzz Williams' year. It's going to happen sooner or later. They won at Wisconsin in non-conference. They beat Louisville, Georgetown and Cincinnati all by double digits. And they have the Big East Player of the year, and another candidate that was equally deserving. Plus Florida is coming off back to back blowouts. They haven't experienced any adversity yet, compared to Marquette who overcame a second half deficit to a dangerous Murray State team.
Why Florida Will Beat Marquette
Rational Reasoning
Marquette gives up an abysmal 11.8 offensive rebounds per game, good for #336 in the country. I didn't even know there were that many schools. With the green light to shoot from out to 25 feet away, Florida should have plenty of second chance opportunities if the three-ball won't drop.
Based on their first two games, it looks as if Florida is playing as well as any team in the tournament. They were bounced by Kentucky from the SEC tournament two weeks ago, playing them to the final buzzer in a three-point loss. With their shooters on the upswing and the emergence of Mike Rosario off the bench, Florida is one of those teams that's getting hot at just the right time.
Irrational Reasoning
Irrational and Vegas just go together. The books have Marquette as only two-point favorites, a tiny line when you consider the difference in seeding. That means they lack confidence in Marquette. With a #3 seed only favored by two over a #7 seed, they have made Marquette the enticing bet here. And whenever Vegas entices you, they usually have you.
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