The next big stop in the Republican primary calendar is the land of Lincoln, and the two GOP frontrunners are pulling out all the stops ahead of that contest.
Illinois holds its open primary on March 20 (just after Puerto Rico’s March 18 primary) and will award its 69 delegates proportionally by congressional district. While both candidates are campaigning heavily in Puerto Rico, their campaigns and supportive PACs are already investing heavily in expensive Illinois airtime.
Mitt Romney’s campaign has bought nearly $1 million in advertising time so far while the pro-Romney Super PAC, Restore Our Future, has bought nearly $2.5 million in advertising on cable and network television. That pro-Romney PAC is the undisputed leader in advertising dollars spent thus far in the campaign season and has bought nearly $30 million in airtime since the Iowa caucuses. Restore Our Future has already spend $3.7 million on attack ads that aired out of Chicago affiliates.
Meanwhile, CNN reports that Santorum’s campaign has purchased $122,500 in advertising in Illinois. The pro-Santorum Super PAC “Red, White and Blue Fund” is already on the air in Illinois after a $310,000 ad buying. Their debut spot is this 30-second piece which seeks to “introduce” Romney to voters in the Prairie State. Spoiler: it’s not a great first impression.
There has been scant polling of the Illinois race, but Romney appears to have a slim lead in the two polls taken in March. A Chicago Tribune poll, taken from March 7 – 9 of 600 likely Republican voters showed Romney leading Santorum with 35 to 31 percent. A Fox Chicago poll from March 14 of 1,933 likely GOP voters showed Romney with a slightly larger lead at 37 to 31 percent.
Romney probably holds a solid lead but it is one that can be overcome by Santorum in the coming days. The dynamics of the Republican primary races in the Midwest has so far been stable: Santorum wins the exurbs while Romney pulls in the suburban and urban vote. Given the large urban populations around Chicago, Illinois is a likely win for Romney. If he loses this state, it would be a serious black eye for his campaign.
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