In the last several weeks, the situation in Afghanistan has gone from bad to worse with terrifying alacrity.
At the end of February, average Afghans were incensed over the incineration of Korans that were being used as to pass messages between prisoners in an American-run detention facility. Afghans took to the streets to protest in great numbers. The tragic incident in which a rouge U.S. serviceman massacred women and children has compounded the regretable situation even more. Most Afghans want the American mission in Afghanistan to end – they are now joined by President Karzai who is looking to speed the process of withdrawal.
The U.S. mission in Afghanistan appears to be similarly compromised. Afghan soldiers regularly engage American forces. Recently, Afghan forces turned on their American counterparts while on a mission – one Afghan solider shot two of his American compatriots in the back of the head. These instances are innocuously dubbed “green on blue killings.” On Wednesday, U.S. Defense Sec. Leon Panetta made a secret trip to Afghanistan and was greeted with an attempted suicide attack on the tarmac.
These incidents suggest enemy infiltration at many levels in Afghanistan. The American people are tired of what has increasingly come to be seen as an unwinnable mission in Afghanistan. They too want the Afghan mission to end.
Withdrawal is scheduled to begin in 2013 and be complete by early 2014, leaving only a small presence behind. Indeed, it is impossible to accelerate the withdrawal of 90,000 troops in a combat zone any faster than that, but in an election year with an embattled incumbent president there is likely to be some attempt to speed full withdrawal.
There are some relatively harmless ways for the U.S. to extricate itself from Afghanistan as there are cautionary scenarios. One sad memory built into American’s collective consciousness is the experience of those who lived through the Fall of Saigon – such a scenario must be avoided.
The North Vietnamese Army was gracious enough to engage in peace talks in 1973 which ended in the Paris Peace Accords. But the peace was more of a cease fire – as American forces withdrew from South Vietnam, the NVA regrouped. When the final push to take Saigon was engaged in 1975, Americans had already largely evacuated, but the last of the South Vietnamese who had opposed the Communists were left behind. The heart rendering images of the rushed helicopter evacuation of those who were left behind to face a grim fate at the hands of the government in Hanoi haunt us still.
And the United States has a responsibility to those in Afghanistan who were liberated from the Taliban in 2001. Those pro-democracy activists, ethnic minorities and newly-educated and liberated women trust the U.S. government and are fearful of what will happen when the Americans leave. They should be. The U.S. is in peace talks with the remaining Taliban forces (or was, until those talks were suspended in the wake of recent tensions). Americans will leave a power-sharing arrangement between the Karzai government and the Taliban, but that peace is unlikely to hold.
A speedy withdrawal of forces could set up the conditions for a repeat of the tragic withdrawal from Saigon. The U.S. government should acknowledge its responsibilities in Afghanistan and not make hasty, politically-motivated decisions regarding withdrawal even though the pressure to do so will be great. Americans should not have to witness another Saigon ever again.
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Follow Noah Rothman @Noah_C_Rothman
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