The dates for the recall election of Wisconsin’s Republican Gov. Scott Walker have been set. The Badger State will hold a Democratic primary election on May 8 to determine who will face Walker in the June 5 general election.
Polls of Wisconsin’s recall electorate are all over the map – Public Policy Polling noted in a February 28 release that voters are split 49/49 on whether there should be a recall election at all. PPP showed that Walker has a job approval rating that is slightly underwater at 47/52 percent.
However, Rasmussen Reports released a poll on February 29 that shows the precise opposite: Wisconsinites approve of Walkers job performance in that poll by 52/46 percent. 58 percent of independent voters approve of Walkers job performance. Rasmussen found that 54 percent oppose holding a recall election in the first place.
So, the recall election could at best be described as a tossup today. PPP notes that, with the exception of former Sen. Russ Feingold who has declined to run, all of Walker’s likely challengers trail the governor. However, most of the leading candidates to challenge Walker on June 5 lead him in favorability ratings. Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, state Rep. Kathleen Falk and former Congressman David Obey all have positive favorability ratings.
The May 8 Democratic primary is less competitive – PPP found that Barrett leads Falk, his closest competitor, with 45 to 18 percent.
The labor unions leading the recall effort against Walker have a lot at stake in this race – a victory in June would embolden the labor union movement ahead of a tough reelection effort by President Obama in a light blue swing state. A loss, however, would be deeply troubling for the labor movement and would drain time, money and organizational resources ahead of November.
The recall remains a gamble for labor, but they have pushed all their chips in. As of today, they are pot committed and there is no turning back now.
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Follow Noah Rothman @Noah_C_Rothman
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