For the most part, President Obama enjoys public support for his handling of the war on terror and foreign policy in general, despite the fact that few give the president positive marks on just about every other issue. Today, the spiraling conflict in Afghanistan threatens to derail the public perception of Obama’s competency on foreign affairs.
President Obama has suffered a dip in support among voters on a broad range of issues, but Obama and his reelection team can take some solace in the fact that among many of those indicators he never ranked that highly in to begin with. On issues like the president’s handling of the economy, the debt and creating jobs, Obama is and has been under water for weeks across several polls. Only on the issue of terrorism and foreign policy does the president receive high marks, but recent events in Afghanistan – the president’s signature foreign engagement – threaten to derail that campaign, erode the political will to follow through with the military mission in Afghanistan and degrade public support for the war and the president’s leadership.
Americans are beginning to turn on Obama’s foreign policy accomplishments only recently. A CBS News / New York Times poll released on Monday showed Obama’s rating on foreign policy taking a nose dive; his rating dropped 10 points from the last CBS/NYT poll and is now in negative territory for the first time since the death of Osama bin Laden in May, 2011.
Evan McMurry has a great roundup of some of the possible reasons why President Obama’s approval ratings have dropped precipitously over the last week. Many speculate that rising gas prices are to blame for Obama’s drop in the polls, although that would be incongruous with the finding that few directly blame Obama for gas prices. Some suggest that Obama’s highlighting the recovery strikes a tone deaf note for the millions still unemployed and hurting. The compound effect that a disaster abroad would have on the president’s fragile job approval rating would be catastrophic for his reelection chances.
Most Americans want out of Afghanistan – they are now joined by a plurality of Afghans in the wake of the tragic massacre perpetrated by one U.S. soldier who had gone off the reservation. Obama is likely to accelerate the withdrawal from Afghanistan, damn the consequences, rather than see his reelection prospects fall off a cliff.
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Follow Noah Rothman @Noah_C_Rothman
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