Barack Obama’s poll numbers took a sudden nosedive this weekend, with a Washington Post poll flipping his 50/46 approval numbers, and a New York Times poll showing an even worse drop, to 41%.
What happened? And is this a scary shot of reality for the Obama campaign, or a statistical blip?
1. Gas Prices
The most obvious explanation, and the one that the Washington Post ran with, is gas prices, which have been rising steadily over the past month and have introduced the specter of the $5/gallon pump. Conventional wisdom says gas prices are bad for Obama, who otherwise has promising economic numbers at his back.
This doesn’t quite square with other polling, however: most voters don’t blame Obama for gas price fluctuation, figuring correctly that he has little control over the market. Only 18% of respondents in a recent poll held the President responsible; while it’s possible that those voters caused the downturn in Obama’s approval rating, it’s more likely that someone who blames Obama for gas prices wasn’t a fan of his to begin with, which means its doubtful those respondents caused much of a movement in Obama’s numbers.
What did, then? Possibly it was just:
2. Statistical Deviation
This is the wonkish explanation, put forth by the always-reliable Steve Kornacki at Salon. Kornacki argues that the timing of the poll coincided with bad foreign policy news, but came largely before the good jobs report on Friday morning, meaning it caught voters in a velley of opinion. “It may be that each poll simply began reaching voters at the worst possible time for Obama,” Kornacki writes, “just as the news was dominated by critical commentary of his handling of a potential foreign policy crisis and before a fresh dose of positive economic data was added to the mix.” Indeed, Kornacki points to a Gallup poll released Monday, after voters had had time to digest Friday’s jobs report. Obama’s approval rating? 49%.
I buy this explanation, because:
3. Obama’s Base Support Is Low
Obama’s default approval rating, post-Affordable Care Act, has been in the mid to low 40s. When all else is equal—i.e., no killing Osama Bin Laden, no repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell—he’s not that popular of a President. Thus, the WaPo poll does not reflect a descent in his numbers, just a return to their normal levels following a boost from a few weeks of good economic news. However, this consistent low-40s plateau is likely due to the economic cloud that has hung over his Presidency. As the economy improves, his baseline support should improve as well, though Obama should be careful to crow too much over this, because:
4. Hailing the Economic Recovery is a Weak Strategy
This is Jonathan Chait’s explanation; it’s a zany one, but it has a so-weird-it-might-be-true quality to it. Chait talked to some strategists who argued that Obama’s “America Is Back” message is the weakest in the entire political field, polling well below even unpopular Republican slogans, and actually makes voters actively turn against him. Respondents said that Obama’s strong-lunged celebration of the economic recovery seems to deny the fact that many people are still hurting; they “interpreted any positive statements as a sign of complacency and detachment,” Chait writes. Sure enough, Obama greeted the good jobs report Friday morning with a prime cut of this boast, which may have turned off voters. (This explanation may or may not contradict Kornacki’s theory that the poll largely missed Friday’s jobs report.)
In sum, Obama’s approval drop was likely due to bad foreign policy news last week, combined with an absence of economic factors that caused his numbers to return to their statistical norm. It’s probably not the last of these were going to see, but it’s doubtful the Times’ 41% is going to be repeated: as the economy improves, even with rising gas prices, Obama’s base approval will likely improve with it. There will still be corrections, but expect Obama’s higher numbers to rise into the low fifties, and his base sit in the mid to upper 40s, a significantly less foreboding indication of his reelection chances.
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