UPDATE: The Republican firm American Research Group has released the top-line results from a poll in Mississippi showing Gingrich leads with 35 percent to Romney's 31 percent with Santorum trailing at 20 percent.
There has not been enough public
polling of Mississippi to determine definitively where the momentum lies. But
the state’s most prominent Republican office holder has recently come out in support
of Romney.
Former Mississippi Gov. Haley
Barbour, himself a potential presidential candidate who refused to run and
former head of the Republican Governor’s Association, has endorsed Romney. Present
Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant has also joined in the Romney endorsing. How much
effect that will have on the race is unclear; Tennessee’s Gov. Bill Haslam also
endorsed Romney prior to his state’s primary which Romney lost to Santorum by
nearly 10 points.
What Romney does have in Mississippi
is organization. He is well armed with volunteers and GOTV in Alabama as well.
In Alabama, A Rasmussen
Reports poll released Friday shows a three-way tie. Rasmussen shows that
Gingrich leads in Alabama with 30 percent to Rick Santorum’s 29 percent. Mitt
Romney follows close behind with 28 percent. An Alabama
Education Association poll released on Thursday showed Romney leading the
field by 9 points.
Analysts have come to the rough consensus
that Gingrich needs a strong showing out of both states in order to emerge from
Tuesday with a legitimate claim to remain in the race. With a single point lead
in Alabama after a week of bad press, he is likely to underperform in next
Tuesday’s primary. Rick Santorum could yet squeeze out a lead in both states
but Romney’s strong showing suggests that he will emerge from the South with
enough momentum to continue cementing the rapidly coalescing narrative that he
is the GOP’s consensus candidate.
More polling in these states may
clear up some of the unknowns heading into these key primaries. The most recent
poll we have available suggests that Gingrich will underperform and Romney will
beat expectations. The big loser on Tuesday’s primary night appears likely to
be Rick Santorum.
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