A new
poll from Public Policy Polling should have Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker worried.
Thanks to his controversial eradication of public sector
collective bargaining rights last winter, the governor earned himself a record-setting
recall petition. But signing a petition out of anger is a different thing
than actually voting in favor of a politician’s opponent, and thus far Walker has appeared confident he would
weather the recall as its efforts shifted into election mode.
But the new PPP poll found Walker slightly trailing every
one of his real and imagined Democratic opponents. The two challengers to have
announced so far, Tom Barrett and Kathleen Falk, beat Walker by 3 points and 1
point respectively, and hypothetical candidate Russ Feingold beats him by 7. As
the previous poll had Walker beating all other candidates, the negative press
of the recall is clearly taking its toll on his approval.
PPP points out that while Walker’s approval breaks down
evenly on party lines—Republicans unanimously love him, Democrats unanimously
loathe him—it’s the independents that should have Walker really concerned: only
43% of independent voters have a favorable view of the governor.
Six Senators faced recall elections last fall, with two
Republicans falling to challengers, and two of each party surviving. PPP notes
that anti-incumbent sentiment fell as those elections approached, which means
Walker could be at his lowest point right now. If he can keep the contests as
close as they are, he might be able to ride a late wave of voter doubt over the
wisdom of a recall.
Unlike last fall’s recall elections, however, we’re now in a
national election year, and the motivations will not be entirely local. When
Scott Walker came into office, Republicans were at the height of their Tea
Party-fueled success; indeed, Walker’s election the first time around may have
been something of a fluke. Since then, a dispiriting presidential primary has
sapped the Republican party of much of its energy, and improving economic
numbers have quieted anti-Obama sentiment. Walker will have to fight all the
harder for turnout to be on his side.
Meanwhile, Republican strategists are loving the recall
election, as Democrats both locally and nationally pour time, funding and
resources into an election that doesn’t affect their national prospects.
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