Mitt Romney has regained the
unqualified title of Republican front runner after Tuesday night’s dual
victories in Arizona and Michigan.
The final tally in Michigan with 99.9
percent of precincts reporting:
Mitt
Romney: 41 percent
Rick
Santorum 38 percent
Ron Paul: 12
percent
Newt
Gingrich: 7 percent
The final tally in Arizona with 100 percent of precincts reporting:
Mitt
Romney: 47 percent
Rick
Santorum: 27 percent
Newt
Gingrich: 16 percent
Ron Paul: 8 percent
In Arizona, Romney won every county
and a near majority of the popular vote. The winner-take-all state was not
contested by his fellow Republican candidates and, though the Republican
National Committee docked the Grand Canyon State’s final delegates, its 29
delegates represent a decent haul for Romney.
In Michigan, Romney generally
outperformed his 2008 totals (when he won the state) in nearly every
demographic group other than those who self-identify as “very conservative.” In
2008, running as the conservative alternative to Sen. John McCain, this was
Romney’s core constituency; given the prevalence of open primaries in this
cycle, Romney is in a far better position to win the nomination this time
around with his appeal to a broader segment of the electorate.
AS Jay Cost puts it succinctly in the Weekly
Standard, Romney’s chief rivals, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, have
the near-impossible task of cobbling together a coalition of the GOP’s most
moderate and liberal voters with their most conservative voters if they want to
present a credible challenge to Romney (something Santorum was nearly able to
do with the help of Democratic voters in Michigan’s open primary).
“If you cannot win 50 percent of the vote outright, this is the best way
to win – splinter your opposition onto two sides,” writes Cost. Following last
night’s victory speech by Romney, which was warmly received among the
commentariat on Twitter, it would seem that the conservative blogosphere is beginning
to warm to the inevitability of a Romney nomination in the summer.
Now the run-up
to the Super Tuesday primaries begins. Santorum’s polling support will face
downward pressure and Romney’s polls will enjoy a boost following these wins.
If Romney can secure a majority of the delegates at stake next Tuesday, the
path to the nomination for all his competition becomes much more obtuse and
unlikely.
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