After nearly a month without a Republican debate, tonight we break the fast with CNN’s Arizona Republican debate at 8 p.m. EST. This is not the final debate, but it could be the most critical. With Michigan and Arizona set to hold their Republican primaries next Tuesday and Super Tuesday’s primaries set for the following week, the stakes for this debate are mounting.
Debate Scorecard: CNN/Jacksonville, Florida
Debate Scorecard: NBC/Tampa, Florida
What I do not have high hopes for, however, is a substantive debate with major economic issues taking the foreground. Despite Mitt Romney’s valiant efforts (releasing a broad tax reform proposal today) the last month’s political news has been dominated by religious issues, abortion rights and the existence of Satan. CNN’s rather dismal track record for holding edifying Republican debates leaves me lacking enthusiasm for this near-final contest (there is a PBS debate scheduled for March 19, but the candidates declined to participate in a March 1 debate and the fate of that last debate is in doubt).
With that said, here is what the candidates need to accomplish tonight if they want to maintain or revive their campaign’s respective momentums:
Mitt Romney: (Previous letter grade: B+) It has been a month since the last debate and nearly as long since Romney had an unqualified good news cycle. His last primary victory (with Maine’s final caucus results in doubt) was in Florida on January 31. Romney’s troubles with the conservative base have not abated – indeed, they continue to mount. His latest tax reform proposal may heal some of those wounds, but only if he can discuss that. Romney is not likely to be the subject of many attacks tonight, with the exception of those from Santorum; two of four candidates are running for second place at this point and will debate with that goal in mind. The former governor loses his presidential appeal when he goes on the attack against his fellow candidates – watch to see if Santorum or Gingrich can take Romney’s eye off the ball (Obama) and get him to go on offense against one or both of them. What Romney needs to do is to connect with the Republican base and his party’s moderates/leaners. He can do that by emphasizing the pro-growth, supply-side proposals he has debuted in his tax plan. It will be interesting to see how Romney reacts to what I expect to be a debate dominated by social issues. The culture wars have never been in his wheelhouse.
Rick Santorum: (Previous letter grade: A) In the seven debates in January (gasp), Rick Santorum managed a respectable if not surprisingly good performance in nearly all of them. I suspect he will be taken off his game tonight as all his opponents train their fire on him and his social conservatism. The “Satan” comments from 2008 which broke yesterday on the Drudge Report will come up—they are just too juicy. Santorum is a tactician and a cleaver debater and may take a page from Gingrich’s book, turning the questions on the media for their cultural bias against the millions of Americans that share his belief in the Prince of Darkness. That could play well… once. Santorum will likely have to fend off criticism from the moderators and the candidates alike over his values-based candidacy, the electoral challenges that social conservatism presents in a general election and even his own hypocrisy when he ran for Congress from the Pittsburg suburbs as a moderate, pro-choice candidate. Santorum is also vulnerable to attacks from the right on his economic platform which more closely resembles that of a Blue Dog Democrat –but I think economic issues will be downplayed tonight. Santorum has to make the case that he is a well-reasoned, deliberative, accomplished politician who can take the conservative case to President Obama in November and convince 50+1 he is right.
Newt Gingrich: (Previous letter grade: B-) As a rule, frontrunner Newt Gingrich is a terrible debater but underdog Newt Gingrich is a compelling firebrand. With the former Speaker sinking in the polls of the make-or-break Super Tuesday states and having already ceded Michigan to his competition, Gingrich knows he has to make a splash or he may just lose any hopes of having a comeback and being a presence at the convention in the Summer. Expect Newt to not hold back his fire on both his Republican opponents (with Ron Paul as the exception) and the moderators. Gingrich has let slip to the press that he intends to zero in on the issue of rising gas prices and make the conservative case against the Obama Administration’s energy policies that exacerbate rising energy costs. He has an uphill battle to fight tonight, but I expect nothing less than an entertaining performance from Mr. Gingrich. Call it a last hurrah.
Ron Paul: (Previous letter grade: B-) Ron Paul’s race for a strong second place proceeds apace. His delegate gathering strategy has hit a few road bumps in February; his targets were the low-turnout Republican caucuses. His organization had high hopes for Nevada’s caucus where he came in a distant third place and he expected to win Maine’s caucus where he came in a close second to Mitt Romney. Given that most states award their delegates proportionally, Paul remains competitive but today he trails all his Republican opponents in pledged delegates. Paul’s strategy is not to win over the broadest segment of the Republican electorate but to keep his presently devoted supporters dedicated enough to show up at the caucus sites and maybe bring a friend or two. To that end, he simply needs to be Ron Paul. There is a burgeoning cult of personality surrounding this candidate and he can actually harm his brand by reaching out to traditional conservatives. Paul is on the right track to have the impact on this race and on the future of the Republican party that he wants – that is, moving the party towards libertarianism and away from social conservatism. Expect Paul to make a spirited attack on the morality and electoral viability of Santorum’s brand of Republicanism tonight. It would strengthen his brand and maybe take the latest non-Romney down a peg or two – which has been Paul’s debate strategy all along.
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