New Poll Romney In A Tough Fight For Michigan Against Santorum

by Noah Rothman

On Feb 22, 2012

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The polls of the next Republican primary states, Michigan and Arizona, where GOP primary voters head to the polls next Tuesday, are all over the map recently. In the latest NBC News / Marist poll, Mitt Romney remains the favorite in Arizona with a double-digit lead but he remains in a statistical dead heat with Rick Santorum in Michigan.

In Arizona, NBC / Marist show that Romney is walking away with that state and enjoys a 16 point lead over his nearest competitor, Rick Santorum. Romney maintains an outside-the-margin-of-error lead in every poll that was in the field after Sunday; if this trend holds until next Tuesday, Romney will likely win.

In Michigan, the fight for Romney is far tougher. Romney has closed the gap against Santorum in recent days – Santorum leads Romney by just 2 points with 37 to 35 percent of the vote. Rep. Ron Paul is in second place at 15 percent while Newt Gingrich, who is not contesting this state, trails with 8 percent support. But even with the fundamentals favoring Romney, he continues to struggle against Santorum.

Among Michigan’s Republican primary voters, Santorum walks away with the title “true conservative in the race.” 40 percent of Republican voters identify him as the “true conservative;” Romney and Ron Paul are tied for a distant second at 16 percent each. However, Michigan’s Republicans that say electability is their most desired trait in a candidate favor Romney who 51 percent of likely GOP primary voters say has the “best chance to beat President Obama.” 24 percent of Republicans say the same of Rick Santorum.

This poll shows that 52 percent of Michigan Republicans in this race say beating Obama is the most important quality in a candidate. 39 percent of voters say that having a true conservative is the most critical trait the eventual Republican nominee should poses.

Romney has some impediments with Michigan’s voters; what should be a leg up from his debatable “home state” status in Michigan appears to be no help to him this time around. 88 percent of GOP voters in say that Romney’s roots do not affect their vote. Romney’s father, George, served as the state’s governor for three terms and Mitt Romney grew up in the Great Lakes State.

But this poll also found that Romney’s disadvantage with the general electorate regarding his opposition to the bailout of the automobile manufacturing industry in Michigan appears moot among Republicans. 50 percent of Michigan’s likely Republican voters think the bailout of the auto industry was a bad idea. Just 42 percent of likely GOP voters disagree. Among registered voters, 63 percent support the auto bailout.

In general election matchups, Romney loses to Obama by double digits with 51 to 33 percent of the vote. Santorum suffers an even wider margin at 55 to 28 percent. However, the NBC/Marist sample filter, which only asks voters how they self-identify and not how they have voted in the past or to what party they are registered, shows 51 percent of respondents identify as Democrats and Democratic-leaners. 33 percent said they were Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. 14 percent identified as true independents. 

This poll may have slightly over-sampled Democrats, who are usually more likely to tell pollsters that they lean Democratic (as opposed to “how are you registered”). In 2008, 41 percent of Michigan’s presidential voters were Democratic to 29 percent Republican and 29 percent independent. Among independents, 52 percent to 42 percent voted with for Obama so while this sample probably underestimates Republican partisans, it has approximated the independents preference for Democrats enough to not have to throw the sample out.

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