A Suffolk University / 7 News poll of the Senate race in Massachusetts between likely Democratic nominee and Harvard Professor Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Scott Brown shows the incumbent Republican leading for the first time in five months. The poll shows Brown leading Warren with 49 to 40 percent; the last time Brown had any lead in a poll of Massachusetts voters, let alone a 9 point lead, was a poll taken by Western New England College in late September, 2011.
This poll has a relatively strong sample when compared to the 2008 exit polls of voters in the Bay State’s senate race. The poll’s sample broken down by gender and age closely matches the 2008 turnout. The black vote may be slightly undersampled, but given that African-American turnout in 2008 was at an all-time high that is not likely to be repeated in 2012, this is also a strong sample.
If anything, this poll may have slightly over-sample independents. This poll’s sample is 52 percent independent, 12 percent Republican and 36 percent Democratic. In 2008, the turnout was 42 percent independent, 17 percent Republican and 41 percent Democratic.
It is pretty unlikely that fewer Republicans will turnout in 2012 than turned out in 2008—a demoralized year for the GOP. At the same time, it’s just as unlikely that the independent vote would jump 10 points even with fewer Democrats than 2008, so the difference can be split.
Among other nuggets contained within this poll:
3 percent of those sampled had never heard of Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick. 52 percent of those who had heard of him had a favorable opinion of the Bay State’s Democratic governor. Patrick is likely to be a visible presence on the campaign trail with Obama this year as one of the president’s higher profile surrogates.
Elizabeth Warren is above water in her favorability number; 35 to 28 percent have a favorable opinion of her. 13 percent had never heard of her while 24 percent knew of her but had no firm opinion one way or the other.
45 percent of Massachusetts voters believe Sen. Brown deserves a second term. 39 percent believes he does not need a second term. 60 to 36 percent of voters believe Massachusetts benefits from having a Republican and a Democrat represent them in the U.S. Senate.
This is the first unqualified good news for Brown in a long time. The consequences for 2012 are large. Republicans have two Senate seats on the bubble in November, Brown’s and Dean Heller’s in Nevada. The GOP can lose one but not both and still have a chance to retake control of the Senate. If Brown holds onto his seat, the GOP is very likely to retake control of the upper chamber in the 113th Congress.
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