Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt
Romney can be excused for believing that a deluge of attack ads on former
Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum could arrest his rise in polls of both the
national Republican electorate and key upcoming primary states. This strategy,
executed primarily by a pro-Romney Super PAC (which, we know, he has absolutely
no knowledge of or coordination with), succeeded wildly against former House
Speaker Newt Gingrich… twice. But there is now every indication that Romney’s
attack strategy will backfire against Santorum and the consequences for his
campaign could be far-reaching.
On Wednesday, the first of what is
expected to be many attack ads from Romney’s PAC “Restore Our Future” started
airing in Michigan and other states. The ad, “Votes,” attacks Santorum for his
protection of earmarks as a senator, his votes to raise the debt limit under
Bush and his support for allowing convicted felons to vote.
As an aside, this ad may serve as
proof that Romney really does have no control over his PAC’s messaging given
that the ad charges that Santorum supported allowing convicted felons that had served
their time to vote. Santorum executed a spectacular rope-a-dope against Romney
in a recent debate on this exact measure in which he was able to expose Romney’s
position on this issue which was actually more lax when he served as governor
of Massachusetts.
Even in the three states that Romney
has won, exit polls show that voters believe he has run the most negative
campaign. They are right; in Florida alone, Romney’s campaign ran 3,276
spots – 99 percent of which were negative. Romney’s PAC ran 4,969 purely negative ads –
all targeting Gingrich.
The effect was to make Gingrich
radioactive and his polls have collapsed as a result – but those voters have
not flocked to Romney. In fact, the trajectory of this race has been very
consistent; the anyone-but-Romney bloc of voters really means it. Romney has
given those voters no reason to support him, so they bounce from candidate to
candidate looking for an alternative, any alternative.
With the field having been winnowed
and Santorum appearing to be the last one standing (with the exception of Ron
Paul, who has more
support among liberals and moderates than conservatives and Republicans),
Republican voters will be more likely to rally around Santorum than to abandon
him.
Furthermore, the attacks against
Santorum are rather weak given the Republican field. Romney’s PAC has targeted
him for taking positions that were not particularly controversial at the time
and which Romney himself would have been likely to support (modest debt ceiling
increases $5 trillion ago is unlikely to resonate, particularly in the industrial
Midwest).
Independent voters have been fleeing
Romney, benefiting every presidential candidate including President Obama.
Santorum has cornered the evangelical
and Tea Party vote (who were solidly behind Gingrich not one month ago).
Those voters are not going to move to Romney until every other option has been
exhausted. Romney’s attacks on Santorum, unless they are particularly
substantive or revelatory, will not move anti-Romney votes to support him. More
likely, a backlash is coming.
Romney’s campaign needs to make the
argument for his campaign. Voters
want to support a Republican candidate with a mandate and Romney has been
advancing an extremely weak argument – essentially, telling voters that don’t
support him that he can win the nomination without him.
Given the mountain of money,
endorsements from past and present Republican politicians and tactical advantages
that the Romney campaign enjoys, the fact that his nomination is far from a
given at this point should shock the former governor’s campaign out of its
complacency. It has not and that should tell voters something about Romney should
he receive the nomination. Missteps and mistakes characterize this campaign –
Republican voters are right to suspect that this is likely to continue when
Romney takes on Obama in the fall.
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