Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul’s supporters are gearing up to right the wrong done to their candidate by none other than the almighty on Saturday when snow forced the postponement of a county’s GOP caucus that was likely to go for Paul. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won Maine’s ultra-low turnout Republican caucuses by 194 votes. With Washington County, Maine, rescheduling their caucus for February 18, Paul’s supporters are in crisis mode with preparations to get out the vote and deliver Paul’s first state victory.
Nate Silver, writing at the New York Times, notes that if turnout was higher than the rest of the state (2 percent of registered Republicans came out for the GOP’s non-binding caucuses over the week of February 4 – 10) it is possible although unlikely that Republicans can overturn Saturday’s victory by Romney.
“There are 6,907 registered Republicans in Washington County, and another 8,247 unaffiliated registered voters, who are eligible to participate,” writes Silver. Given that Romney’s forces are already chalking up their victory and moving on, and the only voters likely to turnout in force would be jilted Ron Paul supporters, there is the chance that they could overturn the state’s results.
However, according to State Republican Party Chair Charlie Webster (via The Daily Caller), overturning the state’s caucus results out of Washington County alone is “highly unlikely, almost a miracle.”
“There aren’t enough votes in Washington County to turn this election around,” Webster told the DC. “Even if there is a record turnout of 300 people — it’s usually 113, [or] 140 — he wouldn’t win by 200 votes.”
Still, Paul’s supporters are gearing up to try it. Ron Paul’s campaign is also challenging the state GOP to count the results from special late night caucuses that were sparsely attended but heavily favored Paul. If they are successful, there is the chance that Romney could be yet again robbed of a narrow victory after a recount.
Romney was declared the winner of the Iowa caucuses only to have those results overturned. At the time, it was considered a nominal victory by the new winner, Rick Santorum, because it occurred three weeks after the caucuses and two important contests later. However, Santorum did surge in the polls and his electoral viability was given a strong argument by his come-from-behind victory in Iowa.
Paul and his forces are certainly hoping for a Santorum-like scenario to emerge from the battle for Maine’s non-binding Republican caucus. But the clear winner of all these post-caucus battles – opponents of the caucus system; following debacle after debacle, 2012 is looking like the last year that the caucus structure will be tolerated.
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