Mitt Romney's campaign for the Republican nomination could be in serious trouble if doesn't win the Michigan primary on February 28th. Romney does still have two weeks to right the ship, but the latest news from two Michigan polls is not good: Rick Santorum has taken a substantial lead.
A new American Research Group poll shows Santorum with a six-point edge over Romney, 33 percent to 27 percent. Newt Gingrich, once thought to be Romney's stiffest competition in the rust-belt midwest, is polling at 21 percent and Ron Paul polls at 12 percent.
A Public Policy Polling Michigan poll has even worse news for Romney: PPP shows a 15-point advantage for Santorum, with Romney trailing 39 percent to 24 percent. PPP also has Ron Paul at 12 percent, and Gingrich in fourth place with just 11 percent.
As ugly as the 15-point spread in PPP is, a further look into the data shows some hope that Romney could yet turn things around -- 49 percent of those polled have a favorable opinion of Romney, against 39 percent unfavorable. Santorum, meanwhile, has a 67 percent unfavorable rating against 23 percent unfavorable -- but that's nothing that a wave of negative ads shouldn't be able to fix. 53 percent of those polled said they might end up supporting another candidate -- meaning that most of the votes are still up for grabs.
But perhaps the worst news for the Romney camp in the PPP data is that only 26 percent of those polled consider Romney a Michigander, while 62 percent do not associate him with their state. Mitt Romney tries to claim nearly as many home states as he does points of view on political issues, and Michigan has been pointed to as a place where Romney could not only count on a decisive primary victory, but a place where he might be able to challenge Barack Obama in the fall.
Romney is the son of former Michigan Governor George Romney (who, by the way, had just a 39 percent favorable rating in the poll), but Romney's 2008 New York Times Op/Ed "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" was wildly unpopular in the state at the time, and in retrospect looks, well, idiotic.
Rick Santorum has proven that he can appeal to the heartland midwest, winning in Iowa, Minnesota and Missouri, and he should do well with Michigan's socially conservative base in west and mid-Michigan. Romney should have the profile to appeal to white-collar, business-minded voters in the populous Metro-Detroit area, but that constituency would have seen their fortunes bottom out had Romney gotten his way on the auto bailout.
If Santorum beats out Romney in Michigan, that's sign that Romney is also in trouble in Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania -- and we'd have to, at that point, look at Santorum as the Republican front-runner.
After February 28 primaries in Michigan and Arizona (another Romney stronghold that could now be up for grabs), the race shifts towards the South, where contests should be wide open. Gingrich has been focusing his energies there, and has been thought of as the candidate most likely to succeed in the Southern states, but it's been a long time now since Newt's campaign showed any life. Santorum is unknown and unproven in the South, but his success in Missouri could be a promising sign for his chances there.
One way or another, Michigan will tell us a lot about Mitt Romney's status as the Republican front-runner. Romney's got two weeks to convince them that he's their man. But there's a lot of convincing yet to be done.
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Follow Bison Messink on Twitter: @BisonMessink
[ARG Poll: Santorum Up In Michigan]
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