Something interesting has been
happening to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s greatest asset, his claim
to be the most electable Republican in the race, has been fading and is now
almost undetectable in polls.
Rasmussen
Reports today released a poll of the national general electorate that shows
Romney trailing Obama by ten points – the largest deficit that Rasmussen has
tracked in over a year of polling. What’s more, Obama reaches 50 percent in
that poll, usually the threshold beyond which no challenger can plausibly overturn an incumbent. Rick Santorum, meanwhile,
trails Obama by only 4 points and, at 46 to 42 percent support, Obama is well
within the danger zone in that poll.
President Obama’s approval numbers
have been on the upswing for several weeks, reaching positive status in the Real
Clear Politics Average of presidential job approval polls for the first
time since the post-Osama bin Laden raid bump in May-June, 2011 receded. But
there is more to Romney’s new vulnerability than that. Romney’s favorability ratings
have been on a free-fall trajectory.
A late-January ABC
News/Washington Post poll (which
failed to release its sample data, giving us pause when citing it) showed
Romney’s favorability/unfavorability rating among the general electorate at
31/49 percent. Among independents, his fav/unfav is now at 23/51 percent. Even
among Republicans, Romney is now at a record 32 percent unfavorability rating.
The picture is no better for Romney
in the swing states. Talking Points Memo’s poll tracker shows Romney’s unfavorability
at an average of 53 percent in North
Carolina. In Ohio,
Romney is underwater at 50 percent unfavorability to 37 percent favorability. In Florida, as of January 24, Romney is
underwater at 44/37 percent unfavorability.
The list of states that have fallen
out of love with Romney goes on and the trend should be nothing short of
terrifying – it shows what the GOP base has known all along; the myth of Romney’s
electability is fueled only by winning elections – Romney has thus far won just
three of eight contests. This myth was built on a foundation of sand which is
now collapsing from under him.
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