UPDATE: 9:08 EST: Gingrich concedes

Gingrich delivered a rather deflated concession speech, thanking supporters and asserting that the nomination contest has come down to a two-man race between himself and Romney. Gingrich pointed to signs held by his supporters that read "46 states to go," saying he printed those up for the media as a reminder that he was in the race for the long haul... yet to be determined. 

Gingrich invoked the Gettysburg Address and told the devoted crowd that "people power" would beat "money power." 

With 88 percent of precincts reporting, Gingrich trails Romney by 47 to 32 percent. Romney appears to have won every major media market in Florida. 

Calling it here. Romney defeats Gingrich by decisive margin and captures Florida's 50 delegates. 

UPDATE: 8:44 EST Romney Declares Victory

Mitt Romney congratulated his opponents on a tough primary campaign as he took to the stage to declare victory in the Florida primary. Romney's focus was on Obama and the general election in November, as it should be.

Tonight was a fairly decisive victory by Romney tonight, in a swing state where last minute voters seem to have broke for Romney. Some are discounting Romney's victory, suggesting that the means (massive negative ad barage against Gingrich) did not justify the ends. But the momentum is squarely with Romney right now, and heading into a relatively quiet February, that is a great place to be.

UPDATE: 8:28 EST: The Non-Romneys Lose

Florida is a Romney blowout. No question about it. Romney won the independent and soft-conservative vote and he won the all-important, much sought-after I-4 Corridor between Tampa and Orlando decisively. This is a powerful reinforcement of the Romney as most electable candidate argument.

Newt Gingrich will try to suggest that his lead among the most conservative demographic within the Republican party gives him a mandate and strong showings in the Southern primaries in March. However, he needed stronger showings in the major urban centers in the North. Duval and Bay Counties continue to show Romney leading, although not by much. Gingrich needed to win the urban centers in the North. He failed to accomplish that.

This is a big defeat for the non-Romneys across the board. 

UPDATE: 8:10 EST: With 47 percent of the vote in and the polls closed in the Panhandle, Romney maintains a strong near-majority lead over Newt Gingrich (47 / 31).

Gingrich lost across nearly all demographics besides Tea Party supporters and evangelicals. Romney won seniors and married women. He also won among voters who cited “the economy” as their chief concern. Romney also won the “electability” demographic which was voter’s top priority in a candidate.

Notably, conservatives went for Gingrich but early returns in deeply conservative Duval County show Romney leading by a small margin with more than 50 percent of precincts reporting. Only 2,200 votes separate Gingrich and Romney as of this writing – Gingrich needed a far stronger margin in this conservative bastion.

UPDATE: 8:00 EST: Mitt Romney wins the Florida primary. Mitt Romney leads Newt Gingrich 48 to 31 percent. Rick Santorum trails with 13 percent. 35 percent of precincts are reporting.

Early returns show Romney winning in bellwether counties like Orange (Orlando) and Miami-Dade (Miami) that appear to show Romney leading strongly.

While Duval County and the Panhandle have yet to report, there appears to be a sharp divide in the state. Mitt Romney won every major urban center in South Florida and in the center of the state. If the rest of North Florida follows the patterns that we are seeing in the early returns, it shows Romney still has a long way to go with the Republican party’s Southern voters. Barring events, that would forecast a tough Super Tuesday for Romney.

UPDATE: 7:30 EST: With Mitt Romney holding a majority of the vote with nearly 16 percent of precincts reporting, the likelihood is that AP will call the race for Romney at 8 p.m. EST when polls close across all of Florida. 

UPDATE: 7:19 EST: Romney leads in major portions of the I-4 Coridor, while Gingirch only maintains a lead in the northern portions of the state that were expected to be pro-Gingrich. Romney holds a near majority of the vote with 7 percent returning and very few urban returns. 

UPDATE: 7:02 EST: Polls have closed in most of the state, but the Panhandle, which is on Central Standard Time, closes at 8 p.m. EST. Live results as soon as they come in. 

UPDATE: 6:46 EST: ABC News reports that many voters were influenced by the last two debates and the campaign advertising.

Counties And Candidates To Watch In Florida

Two-thirds of voters said that the debates were a factor in how they voted. Four in ten voters decided on a candidate early in the month; many more early deciders than in New Hampshire or South Carolina.

Mitt Romney has a major advantage in favorability. “About three-quarters of Florida primary-goers have a favorable opinion of Romney, while only slightly more than half say so about Gingrich,” Gary Langer of Langer Research Associates told ABC News.

The majority of advertising in Florida, by both campaigns and PACs, was negative. A report by Kantar Media CMAG showed that most of the ads run were anti-Gingrich followed closely by ads that were anti-Romney. Only 0.1 percent of ads in Florida were positive for Romney.

UPDATE: 6:20 EST: Early exit polls show tonight will be a big night for Mitt Romney. Drudge reports that 46 percent of voters in exit polls cast their vote for Romney (combined with early votes, Romney may near 50 percent). Newt Gingrich doesn’t have a bad night ahead, but not a great night. He outperforms Mitt Romney in 2008 with 32 percent.

Rick Santorum does not appear to be benefiting from any bounce – in fact, conservatives appear to be ditching his campaign for Gingrich; Santorum is underperforming final polls while Gingrich is over-performing. Ron Paul captures a respectable 7 percent having not devoted much in the way of campaign energy to Florida.

Voters in the Sunshine State listed the economy as their primary concern in 2012, just ahead of housing and illegal immigration.

The county-by-county returns should be interesting.  

Florida’s Republicans head to the polls today in the ultimate candidate-on-candidate grudge match. Four will enter and four will emerge – but who will emerge with the biggest vote tally? … Mitt Romney, by all accounts.

Given the pro-Romney margin in early votes and the polls that suggest the former governor of Massachusetts maintains a healthy lead over his nearest competitor, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, this election is likely to be called for Romney on exit poll data alone at about 7 p.m. EST 8 p.m. EST on the Panhandle.

But winning isn't everything, folks. How do the other candidate’s perform? What are their top performing counties? What demographics favored which candidates? Florida will give poll watchers the clearest vision of how the candidates stack up to a key swing state with an electorate that is far more representative of the country as a whole than Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina.

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