Mitt Romney’s greatest asset and his primary pitch to voters, the assumption that he is the most viable candidate to face President Obama in a general election, is taking a bruising after Newt Gingrich trounced him in South Carolina on Saturday. The latest Gallup tracking poll of the electorate shows President Obama at parity with both Romney and Gingrich – both Republicans pull 48 percent of the electorate to Obama’s 50 percent.
Among national Republicans, Romney’s 10+ point lead over Gingrich has evaporated nearly overnight. Romney’s 23 point lead over Gingrich on January 15 has turned into a 1 point lead today.
Another myth that Gallup happily busts is the conventional wisdom that the biggest beneficiary of a Gingrich nomination would be Democrats and President Obama. A poll from January 18 shows Democrats would be the most satisfied group should Romney win the nomination. Indeed, that’s something on which both Democrats and Republicans can agree – 81 percent of Democrats would be happy with a Romney nomination compared to 60 percent of Republicans. Only independents feel like they’re getting the shaft in that particular matchup.
As the Weekly Standard’s Jeffery Anderson points out, a Gallup poll from early December (during Gingrich’s first surge) showed both Gingrich and Romney are equally competitive in swing states. That poll of voters in states like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin (among others) showed that Gingrich and Romney both would pull in 48 percent of the vote against Obama. While Obama draws 45 percent against Gingrich and only 43 percent against Romney, the margin is statistically insignificant.
Would the Obama reelection team really prefer to run against Gingrich, as we are so often told by members of the political class? Gingrich is a baggage-laden lout with a checkered history of adultery and ethics violations – conventional wisdom suggests that the former Speaker should be imminently beatable. But one of the key takeaways from the South Carolina primary was the exit poll breakdown of demographics – besides GOP-leaning moderates, one of the only demographic blocs that Romney won was those that make over $200,000 per year, e.g. “the rich,” as defined by the White House.
Does this not set up precisely the battle that Beltway Democrats want in November – “main street” vs. Wall Street? Would Obama’s Chicago team really rather run against a lout than a bona fide member of the so called “1 percent?” Gingrich was chided by the right for his attacks on Bain, but the polls showed that they not only worked among South Carolinians, with unemployment approaching 10 percent, but they worked big among low and medium income voters (according to an ABC News exit poll). This is the White House’s singular line of attack against Romney, and it is presently being muted as Gingrich employs it to great effect.
It’s hard to believe that Obama would really rather run against a flawed person than a flawed institution. That the president’s reelect team remains committed to attacking Romney (according to memo released to the press) as the presumptive nominee demonstrates another thing – they don’t know what works against Gingrich… yet.
Will they figure it out sooner rather than later? Sure, but this is not the play they wanted to run. Taken off guard by the Republican electorate, Obama’s team will have to wing it for a critical several weeks after it becomes clear that Gingrich is the nominee – and the GOP would be the beneficiary.
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