Rep. Ron Paul has been a strong presidential contender thus far in the primary process – however, Florida represents a challenge for the Texas Congressman. He has performed strongly in open primary contests (Iowa is a closed caucus, but voters can show up and change their affiliation at the caucus site). In Florida, voting is only open to registered Republicans.
The exit polls from South Carolina’s semi-closed primary do not bode well for the Paul. He mirror’s Romney’s appeal among registered independent voters; Romney narrowly won this group with 25 percent to Paul’s 23 percent. Ideologically, Paul performs very well among those that describe themselves as “moderate,” “somewhat liberal,” or “very liberal.” Among voters that describe themselves as “conservative,” between 9 and 11 percent voted for Paul.
Paul’s most consistent demographic are voters 18 to 29 years old – they have gone for Paul in all three of the January primary states. Although, South Carolina’s margin in that demo was tight – 31 percent of voters in that bloc voted for Paul while 28 percent voted for Gingrich (voters age 25 to 29 voted for Paul by 31 percent to 30 percent for Gingrich).
The news is worse for Paul in the even more moderate and open primary state of New Hampshire. Paul leveled the field in his traditional demo, voters age 18 to 24 (he received 46 percent of their vote), but they only constituted 9 percent of the electorate.
By voter ID, Paul performed very strongly with independents (who made up 47 percent of the electorate). He won among those who describe themselves as independents and he only trailed Huntsman with those who identify as Democrats. Among registered voters, he trailed Romney 30 / 33 percent with independent voters. However, he received only 14 percent of the vote of registered Republicans. Ideologically, 24 percent of moderates or liberals voted for Paul while only 19 percent of conservatives did the same. In a “get off my lawn” state like New Hampshire, this is likely Paul’s high water mark.
The story is the same in Iowa – Paul wins a young, moderate and liberal demographic, but trails with conservatives. In fact, in the Hawkeye State, Paul won among moderates and liberals with 40 percent to Romney’s 35 percent.
All this portends a bad night for Paul in Florida next week – not surprising, as his staff indicated early this month that they would be skipping the state all together. Furthermore, Paul’s pull with liberals over conservative Republicans suggests that his voting bloc is not made up of dyed in the wool Republicans that will show up in November to vote for the GOP nominee, whoever that may be.
Paul’s appeal with registered Republican voters is minimal and Florida will showcase this disparity. Paul’s strength is in his organization, which is why he has focused his campaign on delegate gathering and owning the caucus states (like Minnesota, Nevada, Colorado and Missouri). This was President Obama’s 2008 strategy as well, but he had the support of his party’s grassroots. Unfortunately for Paul, his support lies with non-Republicans.
With this tepid support among his party’s rank and file, a path to even a keynote speaking position at the convention for the libertarian congressman is difficult to envision.
---
Want to connect with other PoliticOlogists? Continue the conversation on My.Ology
Follow Noah Rothman @Noah_C_Rothman
Join today! Ology is where thousands of people share their interests and passions with each other.
This Makes Me Happy... Post anything that makes you happy. Go!
Taylor Swift For those of us who can't get enough Swifty.
Ology Hip-Hop "I embrace y'all with napalm..."
MLB All things baseball during the summer dog days
(1)
Comments
Don't worry, we'll never be evil with your information
-or-