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Final South Carolina Polls: Gingrich Leads Romney, Paul and Santorum Trail

Noah Rothman
PoliticOlogy

South Carolina’s Clemson University released its final poll of the Palmetto State’s Republican voters on Friday showing that with less than 24 hours before polls close, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has regained the lead with 32 percent to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s 26 percent support.

In a distant third place is Rep. Ron Paul at 11 percent, followed by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 9 percent.

The poll of 429 likely Republican voters was initiated on January 13 but recalibrated on January 18-19 to reflect “changing dynamics” (read: Newt’s late breaking post-debate surge). The poll’s +/- 4.73 percent margin of error is a non-factor for the frontrunners – in this poll, Gingrich enjoys a clear lead.

A Public Policy Polling survey of the Palmetto State, taken between January 18 and 19, shows similar results; Gingrich leads Romney by 35 to 29 percent. In that poll, Santorum and Paul are tied at 15 percent each.

Gingrich and Romney have the most firmly committed supporters (not Ron Paul, as conventional wisdom holds for anyone who has read a comment thread on Ology Politics). 81 percent of Gingrich’s voters are committed to voting for him while 79 percent of Romney’s voters say the same. Only 72 percent of voters say they are committed to voting for Paul while 28 percent of his supporters say they could cast their vote for another candidate. Moreover, 51 percent of Paul all voters have an unfavorable opinion of the libertarian Congressman to 39 percent favorable – a bad sign heading into Florida for Paul.

PPP found that Rick Santorum’s voters are most likely to jump ship – 32 percent of Santorum supporters say they could vote for someone else on Saturday. Of those voters, 45 percent say their second choice is Gingrich.

The PPP survey of 836 likely Republican voters has a +/- 3.2 percent margin of error.

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