With Mitt Romney’s unprecedented wins in both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire, can the GOP keep Texas Rep. Ron Paul’s committed supporters in the big tent if Romney is the nominee next November? Already, the Republican Party is preparing a strategy to make sure that Ron Paul’s supporters do not buck the party in the fall.
John Gizzi, writing for Human Events, raises the specter of a third-party presidential bid by Paul. Gizzi cites the myriad Paul supporters that want him to run as an independent and would vote for him over the GOP nominee or President Obama, if he did. Interestingly, Paul’s support comes from both disaffected Republicans and Democrats in equal measure – a formula for a very effective independent candidacy.
The Texas libertarian has never expressly said that he will not run as an independent if he does not win the nomination, but he has said repeatedly that, while he does not deal in “absolutes,” he has said that the prospect of an independent bid is unlikely.
The question of what to do with Paul’s supporters if Romney becomes the GOP nominee is the subject of a fascinating piece by Major Garrett in today’s National Journal.
“Ron Paul said Tuesday he was "nibbling" at Mitt Romney's heels. Soon, Romney may be eating out of Paul's hand,” opens Garrett’s piece. “Romney is trying to move his rhetoric in Paul's direction. On Tuesday he vowed to "cut, cap and balance" the federal budget. That's not the same as Paul's call for a $1 trillion cut in federal spending in his first year in office, but it's an endorsement of the most aggressive spending cut package going on Capitol Hill.”
Moving Romney to the right, however, will not be enough to keep Paul’s supporters in the big tent. The biggest weapon available to the Republican Party against Paul is his Senator son, Kentucky’s Rand Paul. The party wields a powerful weapon in senatorial appointments – run afoul of the party in the upper chamber and you are highly likely to be sidelined. One can still be an influential independent member of that body, see socialist Senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders as an example, and no one can escape caucusing with one of the major parties in the Senate. However, if Rand Paul wants to remain influential in the Senate, and that is something that Ron Paul has said he wants for his son, Rand must walk a tightrope between appeasing his father’s voters and keeping the party happy.
Furthermore, Rand is responsible to a fickle constituency in Kentucky. In 2010, Paul defeated his state’s Attorney General Jack Conway but Rand was aided in part by an overreaching negative ad which tried to make Rand Paul out to be an idolatrous loon. In 2011, Kentucky gave its Democratic governor a second term in office by wide margins; this is not a “don’t tread on me” libertarian state.
The Republican Party definitely has a Ron Paul problem – his voters are willing to buck their party, and last night’s sizable showing for Paul in New Hampshire shows that this is not a group the GOP can afford to ignore. But the party has means to influence Paul to stay in the big tent – the question then becomes, will they have to use them?
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