Florida, a critical swing state that
has voted for the winner of the general election since 1996, is shaping up to
be a tough state for Democrats as the 2012 election season dawns.
Quinnipiac
University is out with a new poll of the state today showing that Sunshine
State voters are lukewarm on President Obama and Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson.
Obama has a negative job approval at
45 to 50 percent, but his approval numbers are far worse among voters
50-years-old and over. By 53 to 39 percent, older voters solidly disapprove of
Obama – that demographic makes up 62 percent of the Florida electorate.
In a general election matchup,
former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney would win 46 to Obama’s 43 percent – a bad
sign for an incumbent in a reelection year, when most undecided voters tend to
swing against the incumbent when it comes time to vote.
Sen. Nelson has a solid job approval
rating, by comparison, with 47 to 30 percent telling Quinnipiac that they
approve of the job he has done in Washington and 44 to 35 percent of voters say
that “he deserves another six year term in the Senate.”
However, Sen. Nelson’s good approval
numbers are not reflected in a reelect matchup against likely Republican nominee,
Rep. Connie Mack. Nelson receives 41 percent of the vote to Mack’s 40 percent –
Nelson faces the same anti-incumbent problems with which Obama has to contend.
Florida is a critical swing state that
went solidly for Republicans in 2010 – the GOP now controls the trifecta (state
House, Senate and governor’s mansion). The state was the beneficiary of
migratory trends and has been awarded two new U.S. House seats and as many
electoral votes (up from 27 in 2008 to 29 in 2012).
While Obama has a path to reelection
without Florida, it is a difficult one. Similarly, if Republicans take Nelson’s
Senate seat, given that state’s like Montana, North Dakota and Nebraska are
likely to turn their seats over to the GOP, the Democrats control of the Senate
is almost certainly doomed.
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