As Santorum began bubbling to the top of the Iowa polls, it looked like his campaign might have a shot at puylling off an upset. Then, as seems to happen every time someone reaches the head of the Republican pack, a dirty secret from his past came out that might ruin Santorum's chance at the nomination. Was it corruption? Drugs? A mistress? No, it's 82-year-old former senator Arlen Specter.
The Specter attacks on Santorum started small, with flyers and robocalls being distributed through Iowa. These materials offered some puzzling messages: Santorum is pro-abortion, even though he's probably the most religious conservative in the field; Santorum is anti-gun, even though the NRA gave him one of its highest ratings. These issues came up at some Santorum's events over the last few days, but the candidate dismissed them offhand since they seemed so absurd. Why would someone try to attack Santorum on what are literally the key planks of his campaign?
It turns out they were part of a deeper strategy to link Santorum to Specter, the kind of Democrat, kind of Republican former senator from Pennsylvania. The two Pennsylvanian senators go all the way back to the 1994 election, where Santorum was struggling against Democrat Harris Wofford. Specter stepped in on Santorum's behalf and swung the election in Rick's favor. The two then served as junior and senior senators from Pennsylvania for several years, allowing them to continue to build a relationship.
In 2004, Specter was facing a tough primary challenge from fiscally conservative Republican Pat Toomey, and he called on Santorum to return the favor from 1994. Santorum campaigned for Specter, leading to Specter squeaking out a 51-49 victory over Toomey. Even though Toomey was clearly the more conservative candidate, Santorum didn't take much flack for supporting another Republican...yet.
Then came 2009, and with another primary challenge from Toomey looming, Specter decided to make a radical change: he switched parties and became a Democrat. Specter also voted in favor of the stimulus bill, possibly in an attempt to shore up his democratic credentials, but he was eventually defeated in the primaries by Joe Sestak (who then lost to Toomey in the general election).
And now, with Santorum on the verge of possibly being relevant, the Specter connection is coming back to haunt him. Specter has voted in favor of gun control and said "I'm pro-choice," and the other Republicans have leapt at the chance to link Santorum with someone so opposite of Rick's avowed ideologies. While we can't know yet how these attacks will affect Santorum's chances in Iowa, they do seem to be shaking his base. Santorum's major draw to social conservatives is his conviction, but if he was willing to compromise his values and support Specter, does he even have that? If Santorum's final numbers in Iowa are lower than pre-caucuses polling suggested, I think we'll be hearing a lot more about Arlen Specter in the days leading up to New Hampshire.
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