Santorum Rising: Poll Shows Rick Santorum's Iowa Appeal Increasing

12/29/2011

On Wednesday, CNN/ORC released a new poll of registered Republicans in Iowa – that poll was not surprising in many ways. It showed Mitt Romney is competitive in Iowa and may even win the caucuses (he came in first). It showed that Ron Paul continues to be a force; he could also potentially win the cuacuses, but his performance is entirely dependent on intangible factors like weather and the enthusiasm of his caucus-goers (he came in second). The poll also confirmed that New Gingrich, withering after nearly a month of focused and intense attacks from PACs loyal to his Republican opponents, continues to bleed support (he came in fourth). The shock in the CNN/ORC poll is former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s surge of support. Coming in third place at 16 percent, Santorum jumped 11 points from last month’s CNN poll and shows that he could be the dark horse candidate to emerge from the Iowa caucuses.

Santorum’s rise should surprise no one who regularly reads Ology Politics. We have routinely noted his decent debate performance and his Christian conservative credentials which, to the surprise of many, were not a factor in this Republican primary in the deeply socially conservative state of Iowa until late.

Last week, when Santorum received the personal endorsement of the powerful Christian Conservative leader and three-time gubernatorial candidate, Bob Vander Plaats, it opened a flood of socially conservative organizations endorsing the Santorum campaign. While few voters continue to rate social issues as a priority in 2012, the Christian conservative voter has not had a candidate to get behind and has been tepid in their support for any nominee this year (particularly in Iowa). Santorum is beginning to gather that support and, with just five days before Iowans go to caucus, it could not come at a better time.

Now, however, Santorum’s boost in the polls is rife with caveats. His campaign is ill-prepared to mount any sort of sustained effort outside of Iowa. Even coming off the heels of a surprising third or even second place finish in Iowa, he is unlikely to repeat that performance in any of the other January contests. A decent finish in Iowa is likely to keep Santorum from dropping out of the race on January 4, but his last filing (in October) showed the campaign had less than a quarter million dollars cash on hand. If Santorum wants to attempt to compete in South Carolina and Florida, he will require a major boost in fundraising or go deeply into debt – something his campaign has avoided thus far.

Santorum’s boost in the polls should be interpreted in the way much of the Republican primary of 2011 should be interpreted – a series of protest votes by disaffected constituencies. This, the Christian conservative vote, is merely the latest in a series of factional breaks within the Republican Party. Presidential primaries tend to do that to parties.