Kyle Kondik, writing for preeminent political analyst and professor at the University of Virginia's Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball," released an exhaustive analysis of competitive races as redistricting plans become ever clearer. What they found was that about 10 percent of seats (46 give or take) look to be competitive for the next decade - this means that there is a possibility the U.S. House will remain in Republican control until the next round of redistricting takes effect in 2022.
Kondik found that Republicans hold 186 "solid" seats in the House. The GOP has 30 "likely" Republican and 18 "lean" Republican seats. Democrats, meanwhile, control 150 "solid" seats with 23 "likely" and 13 "leaning" Democratic. Of 435 seats, that leaves only 15 genuine tossups.
In 2010, Republicans took control of the state Houses in 11 states and the Senate in six states - notably in traditional-Democratic strongholds in the industrial mid-west like Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. With Republican's making their biggest legislative gains in decades last year, a number of redistricting proposals in a majority of states favor Republicans by shoring up districts for GOP representatives with less-than-solid conservative majorities in their districts.
Republicans currently hold 242 U.S. House seats (a 25-seat majority) to the Democrats 192. There are a number of caveats attached to Kondik's predictions—several states have not yet proposed or ratified redistricting proposals and the Voting Rights Act's Section 5 ensure that states covered by that act must have their proposals approved by the federal Justice Department's Civil Rights Division.
Without any major upsets, however, the implications are clear; the U.S. House has a better than average chance of remaining in Republicans hands. Senate Democrats are already bracing for the loss of the Senate next year - Democrats are defending 23 seats to the Republicans 10 (a result of the anti-Republican wave election of 2006). Even if Obama wins reelection in 2012, he is very likely to be dealing with a Republican dominated legislative branch.
All hope is not lost for Democrats, however. Unprecedented things do happen - many predict that next year will be the fourth wave election (defined as more than 20 House seats flipping control) in a row. This has never happened and no one is sure what this means; whether it will be pro-Republican, pro-Democrat or a pox-on-both-your-houses election where both parties suffer equally. It is simply too early to tell. What we do know is that Republicans have the stronger hand today. Perhaps they will play it better this time around.
Comments (0)
Be the first to comment!