New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie made waves today by endorsing
former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for president. Christie’s decision
disappointed some Republicans who view the Garden State’s governor as an
embattled reformer and see Romney as being too shy to tackle the politically
dangerous but taxing (literally) big three entitlements. Christie’s endorsement
has prompted some to speculate that the governor is angling for a cabinet
position in a Romney administration, or even the coveted vice presidential
slot. While Christie would certainly have been a competitive presidential
candidate, it is hard to see what he would bring to the table as a vice
presidential nominee.
Though imbued with a decidedly more fire personality than
Romney, Christie would bring a similar policy outlook to the White House.
Christie cannot deliver the state of New Jersey, which is almost certain to
vote Democratic in 2012. Nor can Christie deliver a voting bloc, united along either
demographic or ideological lines. As a vice presidential nominee, Christie has
a following—but Romney has a nearly identical following.
Last Friday, Sen. Marco Rubio, one of the most promising
Republicans on the short list of possible vice presidential candidates, made a Shermanesque statement that he had entirely ruled out serving as a vice
presidential candidate. Rubio need only reference the post-vice presidential
careers of Dick Cheney and Sarah Palin to see what happens to a losing nominee
or a vilified nominee in order to be scared away from the post. Whether the
Republican presidential nominee will take his “no” for an answer is another
matter.
But Rubio brings political chips to the table as a veep,
whereas Christie does not. Rubio can help swing Florida-where he won a majority
of the vote in a three-way Senate race last November. As a Hispanic-American,
he can help deliver Latinos for the Republican nominee—a critical bloc whose
support Republicans need no less than 35 percent of in order to take the White
House. Both Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval and New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez
could do the same—although they, too, are newly minted governors without Washington
experience or national name recognition.
Even Herman Cain would be a more influential vice
presidential nominee—with his Southern background, he takes Virginia and North
Carolina off the table. As an African American, he can possibly peel up to 10
percent of the black vote away from Democrats, which would have yielded a
national Republican candidate nearly 2 percentage points of the popular vote in 2000, 2004 or 2008. That
development would be a game changer that would almost certainly doom Democratic
presidential aspirations in 2012.
Christie is likely to be a player on the national stage in
2012 and will be a fixture in Republican Party politics for years to come. He
may want an escape hatch if 2013 is not as friendly to Republicans in New
Jersey as 2009 was, but regardless of the outcome of the next gubernatorial
election in New Jersey, Chris Christie is likely to be with us a long time.
What he will nearly certainly not be, however, is Vice President of the United
States.
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