This one is coming down to the wire.
In the race to find an official replacement for former
governor and now Sen. Joe Manchin, West Virginia’s voters head to the polls
today in what looks to be a nail-bitingly close race.
If
Democrats Lose W.V. Will They Panic?
In this race, acting Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin faces
off against wealthy Republican businessman and philanthropist Bill Maloney.
Polls over the last month have shown the race tightening dramatically. Tomblin
started off the year with a 33 point lead over his opponent. The beginning of
the month showed the race nearing a winnable margin for Maloney, with 46
percent supporting Tomblin to his 40. Over the weekend, Public
Policy Polling’s final survey of the electorate showed Tomblin’s lead
shrinking to 47 to Maloney’s 46 percent support.
Traction has been undeniably generated by Maloney’s
unrelenting attempts to link Tomblin to President Obama who is deeply unpopular
in West Virginia (22 to 63 percent job disapproval). Tomblin’s personal approval
has taken a nosedive in PPP’s most recent poll from 50 / 25 approval to 44 / 32
approval.
Tomblin is still favored to win, but he should be favored to
win by a lot. West Virginia has a
recent history (since 2000) of voting for Republican presidents but the state
has been deeply pro-union and Democratic on the state level since the New Deal.
If Democrats lose this seat, it will confirm what many have felt—that New York’s
9th Congressional special election in which the party lost a seat it
has led since the 1920s was not an aberration. Look to see Democrats outside of
Congressional leadership positions distancing themselves from the president.
Democrats that want to keep their jobs in 2013 will have to rethink
their positions ahead of 2012. In 2006, George W. Bush was a huge drag on the ticket—Republican
consultants advised their clients to avoid having their picture taken with the lame-duck
president and to distance themselves from the Bush White House while on the
stump. For Republicans, this was possible, as Bush was not on the ticket at the
time. Democrats are going to encounter a different problem in 2012. How do you
distance yourself from the top of the ticket? You can’t. Either you ride the
president’s coattails, or you don’t. This president may not have coattails to
ride if Maloney pulls out a win tonight.
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