Straw polls can be highly misleading
indicators of future performance in the presidential primary season (along with
special congressional or Senate) elections. That said, Herman Cain’s resounding
win in Florida’s “Presidency 5” straw poll is telling, both about Cain’s performance
in the debates and the present field of candidates.
In that straw poll of 3,471 Floridian
delegates, Cain garnered 37.1 percent of the vote (2,657 delegates). Texas Gov.
Rick Perry came in a distant second with 15.4 percent. Former Massachusetts
Gov. Mitt Romney followed closely behind with 14 percent. Rep. Michele Bachmann
(R-MN) performance cemented the impression that her candidacy is rapidly deteriorating
candidacy—Bachmann came in last with 40 delegates, or 1.5 percent of votes cast.
Cain’s win has sparked both wild speculation
and tempered analysis—pundits have offered a wide range of opinions, from Cain’s
imminent vice presidential nomination to his virtual irrelevance (Cain was
simply the accidental beneficiary of vote of “no confidence” in the present
field that was the “Presidency 5” straw poll).
Cain had some good moments at the
debate—he was well spoken and comfortable on stage, in contrast to his earlier
debate performances. He offered up a plan and, while simplistic, a grand and
sweeping restructuring of the entire tax code captures the sentiment among the
Republican electorate that the trial the nation faces today requires a robust
and comprehensive solution. If he were elevated to the vice presidency, his
earlier debate comments about Muslim’s requiring
the equivalent of a loyalty test to serve in his administration would appear
bigoted to the general public and would damage his campaign.
Furthermore, Cain would only peel off
a limited part of the monolithic black vote. African American’s are very loyal
to Obama, not so much due to race but to ideology. African American voters vote
Democratic and have since the 1964 voting rights act. Conservatives often fantasize
about a black candidate finally liberating black voters from their allegiance
to the Democratic Party, but that is an overly simplistic analysis. Even if it
was that simple, the first black president would have to trump the first black Republican
nominee.
Cain is a very powerful speaker and
belongs on stage with the Republican presidential contestants. He will make a great
GOP convention speaker next year, and has the potential to do well in a gubernatorial
or Senatorial contest—his taking the nod this year is highly unlikely. However,
his performance speaks volumes about the present field of Republican
contestants. Some are interpreting this as a shot across the Republican bow—the
frontrunners are well advised to head that warning.
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