Polls across the spectrum, from a
number of reputable institutions, have shown for weeks that Texas Gov. Rick
Perry has a significant, if not commanding, lead in national polls of
Republican primary voters. While Perry’s August entrance bump has receded some,
his lead over former frontrunner Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was
indisputable… or so it seemed. Then Rasmussen Reports imposed its “likely voter”
filter on Republican primary voters and found Romney and Perry virtually tied.
Perry is, by no means, the prohibitive frontrunner.
Is the GOP
Primary Field Set?
Oh
God, The Republican Field Is Set!
Well, Maybe
Not.
Rasmussen
Reports found that among likely Republican primary voters over a single day
of telephone surveying, Perry leads the field with 28 percent to Romney’s 24
percent. With a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percent, that is a statistically negligible
difference between the two.
Rasmussen’s poll also found that
this is two way race, with no other candidate cresting the double digit mark
(former House Speaker Newt Gingrich comes in third with 9 percent). A full 11
percent of voters remain undecided, suggesting that voters remain unenthusiastic
about the present Republican field (as
other polls have confirmed).
Romney is by no means out of the
game, and Perry has not locked this nomination down by a long shot.
The conventional wisdom held by many
politicos that non-poll watchers are generally tuned out at this phase of the
election strikes me as misguided. The polls have been moving and this is due
largely to statements and positions that are derived out of the debates.
Furthermore, it is a post-Labor Day world now and the electorate tends to tune
in during the fall.
Now is the time to make your mark,
and Perry is not making a good one. Romney is picking up the, “I can’t vote for
Perry,” vote, but only Tim Pawlenty seems
jazzed about his candidacy. The field is certainly open for a late comer it
seems.
Let’s hope Bill
Kristol is right about Chris Christie…
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