As SportsOlogy reported this morning, Pac 12 Commissioner Larry Scott changed course late last night and announced that the Big 12 is not expanding to include Texas, Oklahoma and their respective hangers on Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
But my guess is that before long the two sides will come to an agreement and the four Big 12 schools will become a part of the new Pac 16. Why? Because it makes too much sense for both sides. I don't know if I'd go so far as to say that Texas and the Pac 12 need each other, but they could sure benefit from one another.
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Scott's declaration that the Pac 12 will not expand sounds a lot more like an early step in a long negotiation, rather than a deal breaker.
What is holding up an agreement?
The sticking point between the two sides is Texas' Longhorn Network. Texas signed a 20-year, $300 million deal with ESPN for the Network, and Texas to this point has not been willing to share any of that revenue. At the same time, the Pac 12 has not been willing to allow Texas into the league under current terms of the Longhorn Network deal. Not only would Texas' extra $15 million a year give the Longhorns a competitive advantage over other Pac 12 schools, the Network would undercut the Pac 12's efforts to establish its own television network.
However, it looked earlier this week like Texas and the Pac 12 were determined to come to an agreement. It appears now that the two sides are still far apart, so Scott pulled the plug.
What does Texas do now?
For now, Texas' main objective is keeping the Big 12 together. The problem with the Big 12, and the reason Nebraska and Texas A&M left, is that Texas is clearly the top dog in the conference and does not share revenues equally with other conference members. The Big 12 is the only conference that operates in such an unequal manner.
Now, left with no other options, Texas Athletic Director DeLoss Dodd told the Associated Press today that Texas is open to equally sharing revenues from the Big 12's new 13-year, $1 billion FOX TV deal with all conference members. But the Longhorn Network money, Dodd says, is still off-limits.
Will the Big 12 stay together?
For now, it will. For now, the remaining Big 12 members have no choice but to hold their noses and hang together. Oklahoma and company can take the increased TV revenue that Texas has put on the table and be pleased that they've cut a better deal for themselves (it also looks likely that Oklahoma will successfully oust Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe). But the seeds of change have been sown, and before long, the fruit will blossom. After the Pac 12 pulled back, Oklahoma made it clear that the school was still on good terms with the Pac 12, and that lines of communication would remain open.
Why are Texas, Pac 12 destined for one another?
Eventually, the Big 12 will run into more issues. Around the Big 12 there is a fundamental distrust of Texas, even though other schools realize that Texas is the cornerstone of the conference. The Big 12 will continue to suffer attrition whenever a school sees a better deal. Nebraska, for example, is getting $22.6 million in revenue from the Big Ten Network this year -- almost twice as much as it would have received had the Cornhuskers stayed in the Big 12.
Keeping the Big 12 together is a stopgap solution that allows Texas more time to negotiate with the Pac 12, and the more stable the Longhorns can make the Big 12, the more leverage they have agains the Pac 12. Inevitably though, both sides will realize that they are much stronger -- and richer -- with each other than without. Without the Pac 12, Texas will have to choose between joining the ACC (not a viable option), or independence. And though I believe Texas could survive quite well as an independant, the school has shown no interest in such an option.
What the Pac 12 gains from a deal is more abstract, but no less significant.
The Pac 12 has a nice conference. Utah and Colorado were nice additions. But add Texas, Oklahoma & company and the Pac 16 becomes a great conference that likely surpasses the the SEC and Big Ten in influence and comeptitive quality.
The problem with the Pac 12 now is that USC is no longer a flagship brand for the conference, and Oregon isn't strong enough to fill that void. Oklahoma would be an upgrade to the conference, but Texas is the real jewel. Texas is fertile recruiting ground, and the Longhorns have the richest, most powerful athletic department in the country (rivaled by Ohio State), with the largest, most rabid and wealthiest fan base. Add Texas and a couple of its buddies into a Pac 16 Western SuperConference, and you've got a force that can dominate the college football scene on a national level.
For now, the Pac 12 has sent the Longhorns back to middle America to sweat it out. But before long, Texas and the Pac 12 will be back at the negotiating table. And there is too much mutual benefit for a deal not to get done.
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