University of Virginia professor and
proprietor of “The Crystal
Ball” has a number of thought provoking electoral college scenarios out
today for 2012, many favorable to Obama but at least one showing how the Republicans
could retake the White House. He is obliged, however, to provide at least one
of the dreaded 269-269 tie scenarios. But will all this prove academic if the
effort to eliminate the Electoral College is successful? That effort is
underway and is closer to its goal than you may think.
The National Popular Vote Interstate
Compact, a movement dedicated to eliminating the Electoral College, would
force states that have adopted the compact to move all their electoral votes to
the candidate which receives the highest national popular vote total.
Eight states have approved signed
the compact into law (for a total of 132 electoral votes) and thirteen other
states have introduced the measure and to their respective legislatures. The
compact only takes effect when enough states have signed onto the compact to
add up to 270 electoral votes (the amount needed to become president).
Supporters of the measure say that
adopting a national popular vote makes the nation, by definition, more
democratic. It would also make it next to impossible to have any electoral
ties, as Sabato outlines, and it would avoid sending presidential elections to
the Supreme Court to determine when recount procedures can and should end, as occurred
in the 2000 presidential election.
Critics charge that it dismembers
the Madisonian vision of the Constitution that eloquently provides equal representation
in national elections to all parts of the country. Should the national popular
vote become the flavor of the day, it would disenfranchise all but the largest
population centers. Furthermore, it removes a check on the will of the
electorate to be swayed by a mob or a single, electorate moving event (think
2008’s collapse of the mortgage market or a major terror attack in October of
an election year).
What do you think? Is the Electoral
College a dated relic of America’s republican past? Or is this a necessary check
on the will of the majority as envisioned by the founders? Your thoughts and my
hastily prepared response will be, as always, below.
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