The internecine battle within the
Republican Party is messy, bloody, long on below-the-belt attacks and short on
substance. It is not a pretty sight to watch and while President Obama’s poll
numbers continue to fall, it gives his supporters hope that the disaffected losers
of this battle will stay home in November and hand Obama an unearned victory. This
is not a new hope, but while primary fights can often harm an incumbent’s
chances, they rarely hurt the opposition party.
It is clear that some Republican
candidates are fighting to be the “Tea Party” nominee, while others are doing
all they can to avoid that label (ahem, Huntsman). Right now, this fight is
splitting the party’s regular and swing voters and it is giving the incumbent
party time to sharpen their attacks and shape their argument. But will it help
President Obama and Democrats when the primary season is over?
A compiled index of Rasmussen Report’s
daily tracking polls of job approval with a “likely voter” filter tells you all
you need to know:
The “strongly disapproves” are
nearing a majority. Those are hardened opinions that require major events to
shake their faith in the correctness of their disapproval of Obama. Likewise,
the strongly approves; given the state of the economy, that level of approval
can be considered the Democratic base for 2012.
The grey area, those folks with a somewhat
wishy washy opinion, may not show up on Election Day. “Adults” or “Americans”
support of Obama has also been falling but it is the “likely voter” that is truly
worth watching.
The “likely voter” is enthusiastic
and has voted in at least two presidential elections or one presidential and
one midterm election. They are highly unlikely to not show up at the voting booth
on Election Day. The “motivation gap,” just as in 2010, will favor Republicans
next cycle just as in 2008 it favored Democrats.
So, back to the Republican primary
contest: is it an ugly sight to watch. Sure is. Will it matter next fall? Nope.
Just as Democrats did not stay home on Election Day 2008, pining for the
unrealized candidacy of Hillary Clinton or John Edwards, Republicans will fall
in line behind the nominee.
For incumbents, the equation is
precisely reversed: incumbents always face an enthusiasm gap. Intraparty
challenges increase that enthusiasm gap significantly. The challenge almost always
comes from the ideologically stronger side of either party (in 1980, Ted Kennedy
challenged Jimmy Carter from the left. In 1992, George H.W. Bush fended off Pat
Buchanan’s challenge from the right). The loser in that equation is even more
disaffected than when they started out and they are far more likely to stay
home on Election Day.
Kennedy
famously rallied his troops at the 1980 Democratic Convention: “The dream will
never die”
In
1992, Buchanan delivered his famous convention stem-winder, “culture war”
Tea Party, Establishment and Log
Cabin Republicans from the Wintery Northeast to the Sun Belt, the GOP will vote
for the nominee next fall (with the possible exception of Ron Paul’s stalwarts,
for whom no Republican can quite match the stature of their beloved
doctor-Congressman).
No matter whether the nominee is
Romney or Perry or even Bachmann, the Republican Party will brush the chips off
their shoulders and pursue will all their vigor the big prize: “making Obama a
one -term president.”
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