A group called Jobs
for Iowa produced this ad and purchased two weeks (or $40,000) worth of air
time in the Hawkeye State. While not authorized by the Texas Governor, it is another strong signal that he wants to get into the 2012 race.
At this stage, only former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) are seriously looking for a win in Iowa. Both campaigns
could do with the shot in the arm that a straw poll win, and eventually a
caucus win, would do for them. Romney has all but conceded the state, opting
for a later calendar strategy that starts with a New Hampshire primary win,
followed by South Carolina and Nevada.
Perry could spoil this strategy. His late entry into the
field would yield him the “Fred Thompson Advantage” (That is, entering into the
race late and getting an inordinate amount of media attention for it). If he
seriously contests Iowa, he could easily compete with Bachmann for the top
spot. (Public Policy Polling released a survey
of Virginia Republican voters today that showed Perry leading the pack with
20 points to Romney’s 16)
Caucuses do not have the same dynamic a primary election
has. You have to trod out into the cold February weather to join your neighbors
in a living room or high school gym to vote. While some are secret ballots,
often times you know how your neighbor is voting (your often lobbying them to
vote your way). In this way, it creates an atmosphere that favors the more
fired-up. This is likely to be the tea party candidate or the anti-Romney
candidate (they may end up being the same candidate).
Perry, when he enters the race, will be a formidable force
and is positioning himself well to make a big splash among the 2012 field.
These are exciting days.
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