Okay it's a pattern. Once again, I had a miserable week predicting the box office. One movie. That's how many I got right this week. In fact, since my perfect debut week, I've only had one Opening This Week column where I got more than one movie right. Now some would say this means I should quit trying. To those people I say, "You're probably right, but I enjoy it so I'm going to try anyway. Thank you for your suggestion and do keep reading." So I figured I would do a post-mortem of this week's box-office (all still estimates mind you, so if the count is like 2000 Florida bad I may still have a chance!) in an attempt to better understand what went wrong.
1. The American - $13,127,000
My biggest miss since I started predicting. I didn't even have this Clooney spy pic cracking the top five, and to be honest, I'm still a little shocked by it. I mean George Clooney's kind of an up and comer. It's not like he's one of the more recognizable faces in movies. Who would have thought he could open a movie? Eh you live and learn.
The real reason I discounted The Cloon-Dog (only his good friends get to call him that) was that he was starring in an R-rated action movie that seemed devoid of action. Even if it had gotten good reviews (which it did not) that seems like a tough sell. But this summer has after all been a good one for the R-rating and even though I thought that trend would continue (see Machete), I didn't think it would be with George.
Original Prediction: Out of the Top Five
Prediction Rating: Blech
2. Machete - $11,425,000
How could I possibly overrate the earning potential of a Robert Rodriguez movie at this point? It's been five years since he opened a movie big (Sin City), and Machete's predecessor Grindhouse is one of the more disappointing box office stories of recent years. I hate to say it, but my amateur judgment was clouded by my love for Rodriguez's first true Mexploitation movie. It deserved number one, but it looks like it didn't have enough to get there.
Originally Predicted Spot: 1
Prediction Rating: Blech
3. Takers - $10,900,000
This one I nailed. So I'll just say it's a shame I was right. Who is seeing this piece of trash?
Originally Predicted Spot: 3
Prediction Rating: Meh
4. The Last Exorcism - $7,410,000
I didn't think it would be able to keep up with The Expendables. I was wrong as that didn't even make the top five this week. I don't even know what to think...
I mean the other problem with this week is no one went to see movies. A $13 million champion? When the difference between first and fourth is only $6 million, it's basically a crap shoot. Uh oh, I'm starting to rationalize...
Originally Predicted Spot: 5
Prediction Rating: Understandably off
5. Going the Distance - $6,900,000
I misjudged the female audience's desire to see Justin Long and Drew Barrymore canoodle, but again I really don't think I can be blamed. I mean this is only $6 million off from the top spot really. On a weekend where people go to the theater, maybe those women exist and support this film. Maybe I look like a genius at that point. I don't know maybe.
Originally Predicted Spot: 2
Prediction Rating: An honest mistake
You know what? This was just an unlucky week. I mean, when no one sees movies you get some anomalies at the top of the box office. I mean The American? That's not a "Number One Movie in America!"-type movie. This was just a wacky weekend. Next weekend will be better. We can build on this! (Denial is a beautiful thing.)
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