There's a general rule of thumb when it comes to predicting Emmy winners: always stick with previous winners. And that makes sense in many cases—nothing beats Mad Men, everyone knows that—but here, we take apart the show's major categories, and pick out the ones where the newbies stand the best chance. We're looking at YOU, Homeland!
Outstanding Comedy Series
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Girls
Modern Family
Veep
It's refreshing to see some new blood in this category: even with Parks getting what might be a surprising snub, a poor year of Glee and spiraling The Office being replaced by newbies Girls and Veep (a pleasant surprise in my book). I say that Modern Family hasn't made a bad step in its third season, and it'll be up to one of the newbies to take it down. Emmy voters aren't that edgy though, so I think it's still a win for ABC here.
Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Lena Dunham, Girls
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
This has the expected newbies, but at one major cost: Tina Fey (30 Rock) getting shut out. Again, unless the Emmys are feelin' real ballsy, I don't think Lena or Zooey actually stand a chance. Melissa McCarthy took this home last year, but I thought it was undeserved then and I still do. I'd like to see Amy Poehler get the gold.
Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Louis C.K., Louie
The shocker here is Don Cheadle, who got into a BIG playing field at the cost of Showtime network-mate Matt LeBlanc, who was ousted. Also out are Steve Carell and Johnny Galecki, which made room for returners Larry David and Jon Cryer (back in lead after a year in the Supporting Actor race). If it's Parsons' to lose, Cryer might be the reason he does.
Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
As partial as I am to Modern Family, I can't speak to Julie Bowen getting a second-year win with all of the new competition (the late Kathryn Joosten, Mayim Bialik, Merritt Weaver) in the midst, and even then, I believe it deserves to go to Kristen Wiig on her final season at Saturday Night Live. She and fellow Emmy nominee Bill Hader have been two of the few reasons that show has survived in recent years, and she deserves a trophy for it as a parting gift.
Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Max Greenfield, New Girl
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
This might be the greatest category of anything I have ever seen. All four Modern Family boys return to the ring (Ty as last year's winner), and with Chris Colfer and Jon Cryer out, Bill Hader and Max Greenfield are the absolute best replacements. I literally love every actor in this bunch, and it's tough to choose a winner, but I really think that Jesse Tyler Ferguson did a fantastic job on Modern Family this year.
Outstanding Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
Mad Men
It would be the shock of the century if Mad Men lost this category, but this is still the strongest batch of Outstanding Drama Series in years. Losing Dexter, Friday Night Lights, and The Good Wife led to including much buzzier—and better—dramas, including one-year wonder Homeland. I'm not bold enough to call the Mad Men loss, but if it did, any single one of these shows (except maybe Boardwalk, which really isn't my thing) would be worthy.
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Claire Danes, Homeland
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Glenn Close, Damages
Julianna Marguiles, The Good Wife
Kathy Bates, Harry's Law
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
I'll be bold here: I think Claire Danes is a frontunner, and probably the most likely newbie in the entire Emmy class to walk home with a trophy. Julianna Marguiles is great, but no one's played deranged quite like this. I've got my fingers crossed that its hers.
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Damian Lewis, Homeland
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Cranston has won this three times, and now that he's back in the running, I don't see why he should lose. The Homeland and Downton effect isn't as strong here, and Buscemi, Hall and Hamm haven't had much luck in this category. With Breaking Bad generating more buzz and viewers than ever, it'd be tough to imagine another outcome.
Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Archie Panjabi won this in 2010, whereas Christina Hendricks and Christine Baranski have played here multiple times before and come up short. Wouldn't it be crazy if Maggie Smith took it home for Downton? Don't sleep on it.
Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Brendan Coyle, Downton Abbey
Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad
Jared Harris, Mad Men
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
PETER DINKLAGE if I have my say, but Giancarlo Esposito has a major shot at taking this award away from him for his creepy face melting thing on Breaking Bad. You can throw Aaron Paul in there as a dark horse, but I really think it comes down to these two players.
Outstanding Miniseries or Movie
American Horror Story
Game Change
Hatfields & McCoys
Hemingway & Gellhorn
Luther
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia
Tough, because American Horror Story had the easy lead here until Hatfields and McCoys came along. It's between these two, with a slight edge to Hatfields. But Horror Story was so daring and different that I'd like to see the Emmy voters support that (I mean, they already have with a boatload of nods, but we'll see if those turn into actual trophies).
Outstanding Variety Series
Jimmy Kimmel Live
Late Night with Jimmy Fallon
Real Time with Bill Maher
Saturday Night Live
The Colbert Report
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart has won this 9 years in a row, already the longest streak in Emmy history. I say we make it a clean decade.
Outstanding Animated Program
American Dad!
Bob's Burgers
Futurama
The Penguins of Madagascar
The Simpsons
I'm surprised to not see South Park in the mix, but instead of going with likely winners The Simpsons or Futurama, I'd like to see American Dad!'s second attempt (the first being in 2009) take it home. It's consistently underrated for being in the Seth MacFarlane batch of animated series, when it's much more inventive and hilarious than its company.
Outstanding Reality-Competition Program
Dancing with the Stars
Project Runway
So You Think You Can Dance
The Amazing Race
The Voice
Top Chef
I'm not sure why the Emmys are so excited about The Amazing Race that the show has won this all but one year since that category's 2003 inception. Top Chef, which took it in 2010, shows up again, and The Voice could possibly do some damage, but if I had it my way, So You Think You Can Dance's second-ever nomination would be the winner.
What do you think of this year's Emmy nominees? Let us know in the comments!
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