The 2011 Detroit Tigers season really wasn't that long ago, but it still seems to have slipped out of the collective memory of Tiger fans. The reason it should not be forgotten is this: this 2012 Tigers team is almost a mirror image of last year's squad. And more likely than not, the results this summer will be the same: The Tigers should beat out both the White Sox and Indians, and win the American League Central.
Are the Tigers deeply flawed? Yes. The defense is terrible. It costs the team pitches, outs, runs. There's very little team speed. The Tigers struggle to score without extra-base hits. Second base is a disaster, and has been for years. Brennan Boesch, and Alex Avila, and Jhonny Peralta and Delmon Young have all disappointed.
But when you have a team with so many weaknesses, it becomes too easy to underestimate the strengths. And this reality remains: when it comes to high-end, game-changing talent, no team in Major League Baseball, not even the Yankees, can compete with these Detroit Tigers. By season's end, expect the cream to rise to the top.
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The Cleveland Indians have a nicely balanced roster, complimentary players, good depth - all the things the Tigers don't have. But the Indians are the finely tuned Chevy Cruze to the Tigers rip-roarin' Corvette. And don't get me wrong, I love the Cruze, but the Corvette has a higher gear or two that puts the plucky, zippy little Cruze in the dust when it's running cleanly.
The White Sox are a more dangerous contender because they've got talent in the lineup, difference-makers in the field, a surprisingly tough bullpen and a young rotation that has really gotten rolling, led by future Cy Young winner Chris Sale. As Detroit News columnist Lynn Henning pointed out as I spoke with him yesterday, teams like Chicago are dangerous, and can steal the division right out from under you if you let them stay hot.
But the White Sox look like a team that could go either way - they could surge, they could collapse. They have some offensive players - Paul Konerko, Alex Rios, AJ Pierzynski - who probably played a little beyond themselves in the first half, and are bound to regress. Kevin Youkilis has given the Sox a nice shot in the arm, filling a gaping hole they had at third base by hitting .347 with 14 RBIs in his first 13 games with Chicago. But that kind of production is clearly not sustainable either.
The White Sox pitching is the real make-or-break, however. Sale is the real deal, but Gavin Floyd is still inconsistent and probably always will be. Phil Humber is barely passable as a starting pitcher, even at the back of the rotation. The new kid, Jose Quintana, has been almost unhittable in his first eight starts, but conventional wisdom says the 23-year-old will come back to earth. The lynchpin is Jake Peavy: he's enjoying a better season than he's had in years, but the injury bug, it seems, is always hiding right around the corner, ready to bite. If Peavy can stay healthy and effective, he can take the Sox a long way.
But even if, let's say, the Chicago White Sox stay hot and healthy, the South-Siders still have a talent gap to make up for against Detroit. Paul Konerko is a great hitter - one of the best in his generation - but he's not Miguel Cabrera. AJ Pierzynski has hit the ball well this year, but he won't keep pace with Prince Fielder. Alexi Ramirez is a dynamic two-way player, but he's no Austin Jackson. Chris Sale is an ace already in his first season as a starter, but Justin Verlander is an Ace and a half and the Tigers rotation is deep and sturdy behind him.
Chicago's young bullpen has impressed, but the Tigers' veterans who have been through the wars. Jose Valverde, Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke - those guys have proven themselves under pressure. Brayan Villarreal and Duane Below have filled the roles of the fearless, upstart young guns.
Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has a tough, important task ahead of him the next couple weeks as we approach the trade deadline. The Tigers, perhaps more than any team in baseball, can help themselves immeasurably with the right acquisition - that's when it's almost an advantage to have such clear, glaring weaknesses. You know exactly what you need to fix, and if you're able to do so, you make a big upgrade.
The White Sox could use veteran bullpen depth and the Indians could use a bat - but those upgrades will be subtler changes with lesser potential impact.
As the Tigers have once again proven in the first half of the season, games and divisions aren't won on paper. Just because the Tigers are capable of playing better baseball than the White Sox and Indians, head-to-head over the long haul, that doesn't mean they'll do it. Even if the Tigers get a steady second baseman, or a run-producing corner outfielder, many of the weaknesses will remain.
But barring a major injury or two, the high-end, MVP-caliber, Hall of Fame-caliber talent the Detroit Tigers have in doses is something that the rest of the division cannot compete with. Last season the Indians gave Detroit a good run before sucumbing to the collapse everyone knew was coming - but people forget the Tigers did not need any such help from Cleveland last year. The Tigers got on a roll, played their best baseball, and broke the Indians back.
Don't expect a total collapse from the White Sox or Indians this year, but if the Tigers play as well as they're capable of playing, it won't matter if they break down in Cleveland or Chicago.
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