A new CNN poll shows Barack Obama holding even at three points above Mitt Romney, 49-46, exactly where he was in the same poll one month ago. Yawn. Further down the poll, however, you get this:
7. Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would better handle that issue if they were elected President.
Neither No
Obama Romney (vol.) opinion
REGISTERED VOTERS
Health care
June 28 – July 1, 2012 51% 44% 4% 1%
Of course, this is the one question on which CNN has no trend data, so we don't know whether this is a change or how much of one. But, as PoliticOlogy mentioned yesterday, Obama was bound to get a bounce from the Supreme Court's ruling, and it looks like that 51% is it. It's entirely possible that Obamacare remains unpopular, as it incites an almost Pavlovian response in the public (*DEATH PANELS* *DEATH PANELS*) while Obama's "handling of health care," which can mean all of the popular provisions of the ACA without the * DEATH PANELS * remains popular.
| Related: 5 Things You Need To Know About Obamacare's Political Fate |
This is dangerous turf for Romney. As God and everyone else has pointed out, he doesn't have a health care plan beyond "repeal and replace," in which "replace" means "leave it to the states," which isn't a plan, it's a void. Romney's now in a trap: any specifics he comes up with to replace Obamacare will be up against a set of popular provisions that have passed all three branches of government, while he must simultaneously argue that a plan modeled after his health care system in Massachusetts should be thrown out.
All of which means Obama may never need to do better than the 51% CNN finds him at on the issue; he can just let Romney flail.
Polls have routinely shown that health care as as issue is about fourth in priority for voters, behind jobs, the economy, and the deficit. In polls I've seen, anywhere from 7-14% of respondents listed it as a priority in the election. Will that number grow now that health care is in the news again? Will it shrink now that Obamacare is essentially a done deal? Most important, will Romney be able to morph it into an economic issue now that it's a tax?
ETERNAL POLL DISCLAIMER: National polls don't matter, margin of error, etc.
ETERNAL CNN DISCLAIMER: These people can't do anything right, including news.
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