The Supreme Court did a lot today, but they absolutely reset the 2012 presidential and congressional elections, and potentially saved Mitt Romney's campaign.
The rise of the tea party and the resulting 2010 Democratic bloodbath were both due in a significant amount to Obamacare, né the PPACA. By the time the right was done criticizing Obama's health care reform law, they had convinced a quarter of the country that the ACA was the opening feint of an approaching tyranny, and this specter roused up the choler of a nation angry over the financial collapse and long unemployment. Despite the public desire for health care reform, Obama's bill was unpopular by the time it was passed, and remains so today.
The Supreme Court's ruling upholding the ACA this morning could send the 2012 election back to 2010. The tea party is all but depleted, and Mitt Romney has been facing an unenthusiastic base. No more: Obamacare will fire up the tea party and other pockets of the right, who will have no problem overcoming their distate for Mitt Romney to vote for the repeal of the health care law.
The Supreme Court also did the Obama campaign no favors by explicitly declaring the individual mandate a tax. The GOP have already spent the last two years calling Obamacare the "job killing bill." They will now tar it as a massive federal tax increase, sealing the deal on the tyrannical nature of the bill; Marco Rubio is already running around calling it a middle-class tax increase. And now that the bill is upheld, they can attack it doubly on its jobs impact, arguing that not only has Obama not restarted the election, but he wasted all of his time and political capital on a bill that destroys jobs. You really wanna reelect this guy?
| Related: Supreme Court Upholds Affordable Care Act, Just As I Said They Would |
The great part of this for Romney is that it doesn't rely on Romney, whom even Republicans seem to dislike. His economic argument has already been "I'm not Barack Obama." Now his health care argument will be "I'm not Barack Obama." Angry conservatives don't need Romney to articulate any anternative to health care reform; they simply need to hear "Repeal and Replace," no matter how empty a claim that is.
Of course, Mitt Romney passed health care reform in Massachusetts that formed the basis for Obamacare, making his criticism of it awkward and unconvincing.
However, for as fired up as this will make Romney's base, he still needs to convince moderate voters that Obamacare needs to be repealed. The bill does not poll well, and has not improved since its passage, as many of us, PoliticOlogy included, thought it would. But now that the bill has been ratified by all three branches of government, Romney will need to convingly explain that the only passage of health care reform in modern history should be chucked out the window.
Fortunately, Romney doesn't need to convince too many of them. Just a small swing of independent or moderate voters in swing states could save Romney's campaign. Yesterday, PoliticOlogy reported on numbers in the swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida that showed voters in those states underwhelmed by both candidates, but mildly preferring Obama over Romney. Those numbers could to look a lot different in one or two weeks' time; if they do, the change will likely change in Romney's favor.
The Romney campaign is already bragging that it's raised $200,000 since the Supreme Court's decision just 1:15 ago. That's nice and everything, but with Romney's fundraising abilities and Super PACs, he doesn't even need the money. He needs a narrative shift, and he just got it.
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Follow on Ology: Evan McMurry | PoliticOlogy
Follow on Twitter: @evanmcmurry | @OlogyPolitics
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