Public Policy Polling has some cold water for the Obama campaign: Obama lead over Romney in the crucial swing state has dropped to three, 47-44, just at the margin of error. This is down from his previously steady 2012 lead of seven.
The main slippage has come from white Democratic males, who formerly supported the president 88-7, but have now swung to Romney by six points (though Obama still does well among blacks, women and younger voters). His favorability rating should also be of some concern: until now, it's held steady in the Buckeye State at 48-48, is now underwater 45-51.
Fortunately for him, he's got Mitt Romney as a foil. Ohioans just do not like Romney, with only 35% giving him a favorable rating, and 54% unfavorable. Even worse, that favorable number goes down to 28% among independents. "That Obama has a small advantage in the state anyway is a testament to Romney's weakness as a candidate," PPP noted. "With Obama's approval numbers where they are he would almost definitely be trailing if the GOP had a top notch candidate against him—but it really just doesn't."
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Untangling the cause of Obama's drop is tough, as PPP didn't burrow down into specifics about the economy and other issues. But it must be imagined that a) the poor job numbers of the last few months are finally catching up with Obama, and B) his anti-Bain ads, which have been running in Ohio and are targeted toward Rust Belt swing states, aren't having their intended effect. We'll see how that changes now that the Obama campaign is moving from attacking Romney as a venture capitalist to attacking him as the Outsourcer in Chief.
Last, none of the potential Vice Presidential candidates do much for Romney. Including Rob Portman in the poll actually dropped Romney by one point overall, though that's probably statistical noise.
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