In sharp contrast to NBC’s debate on Monday night, this was a lively one. It’s likely to be looked back on as the moment when Mitt Romney won the presidential election… by default. Not to say he didn’t have a good night, he did. But it was Gingrich that had a bad night, and Santorum who once again had a great night – so good, in fact, it is hard to see him not winning votes. Those votes would, however, not come from Romney’s camp but from Gingrich’s.
CNN/Southern Republican Debate Scorecard
Fox News / Myrtle Beach Debate Scorecard
NBC / National Journal Florida Debate Scorecard
Romney had the advantage of having a house packed in favor of Romney. Some have feigned indignation over this accusation, suggesting that saying Romney bussed in supporters is a self-serving attempt to demean his performance. Yeah, well, at one point the audience erupted into cheers when Romney asserted that he had registered as an independent voter so he could vote in a Democratic primary against Ted Kennedy. That, friends, is not a Republican audience but a Romney audience. But that’s the view from 30,000 feet. How did the individual candidates do last night in Jacksonville?
Mitt Romney: (Previous letter grade: B -- > B+) Romney’s new debate coach, Brett O’Donnell, deserves a lot of credit – the preparedness that Romney took to the debate stage on Thursday night was impressive. He never got off the attack, which was what he was supposed to do, but he never appeared off his game. His attacks were seen as substantive, primarily because Romney’s demeanor was so cool, despite that many of his attacks on Gingrich (and only Gingrich) had a personal tone. He made several slip-ups (“I don’t think that’s my ad,” only to be told it was) that went largely unnoticed – the fault of his fellow presidential candidates. Romney’s best moment was his defense of his investments, owning stock and paying capital gains tax rates – it nearly put the issue to bed. Romney has already been reclaiming some lost momentum in the polls before this debate; having already stopped the bleeding, he may vault into a double digit lead before Tuesday.
Newt Gingrich: (Previous letter grade: B -- > B-) Gingrich did not come prepared for this debate. His performance was largely good, but he lacked command of opposition research factoids that could have put Romney away. For example, several times Romney defended his investments saying that they were not made by him, but that they were in a blind trust. That is not true. A missed opportunity and one you could not reclaim. Gingrich also shot himself in the foot on more than one occasion, attempting to play the “blame the media” trick against Wolf Blitzer only to be stamped down by Blitzer’s forceful defense of the premise behind the question. Gingrich appeared caught off guard. He missed another opportunity when he said that he would give Romney time to “hang himself;” Romney proceeded to talk for 60 seconds that were decidedly without any noticeable self-strangulation. Gingrich even doubled down on his Bain attacks by going after Romney for owning stock in (gasp!) Goldman Sachs! You could hear the Jennifer Rubin’s of the GOP collectively clutching their chests in shock at that moment. Romney never let off the attack peddle and did a lot of damage to Gingrich – the former Speaker cannot win by default, even a good night is not good enough as the last week of polling has shown. He will lose support from this debate; it’s just a matter of how much.
Rick Santorum: (Previous letter grade: B+ -- > A) Santorum took our advice, it seems. He performed, again, like the spectacular tactician he is on stage last night. He delivered deconstructive attack after deconstructive attack against every one of his opponents – especially Romney. He drew blood by formulating the most succinct argument against the former governor’s electability of any candidate thus far in the campaign season, saying that the GOP cannot surrender the issue of health care to the godfather of the individual mandate. Where Santorum was different from previous performances was the ounce of passion he applied to nearly every answer. Gone was the soft-spoken Congressman. For the first time, viewers saw a dedicated, passionate, “Gingrichian” executive in Santorum. His consistency will win him votes and may win him some donors. Santorum takes votes away from Gingrich more than Romney, which leaves him in the same electoral position as Gingrich. Romney benefits most from a strong performance by Santorum and, to a lesser extent, Paul (one reason why Romney is so focused on Gingrich). In sum, good performance by Santorum means a good result for Romney.
Ron Paul: (Previous letter grade: C+ -- > B-) Paul improved over his previous debate, but not terribly so. He is allergic to expanding his base of support, though you could tell he is trying. He referred to himself as a “physician” in nearly every answer – a good strategy in a state with a median age more than three years higher than the national average and a lot of senior Republican voters. Nevertheless, Paul objects to substantive solutions to problems – his solution to all problems are grand retrenchment strategies abroad and a massive de-escalation of government at home – neither of which can be accomplished within the first year, let alone the first term, of a presidential administration if that. Most voters are aware of this. Paul was slightly more jovial than in previous debates, and that may help him some come Election Day, but not measurably.
SumOlogy: Romney wins by not losing. Santorum is very impressive, but his performance only helps Romney secure an even larger margin on Election Day. Gingrich loses this debate, but it is not entirely performance based. Paul remains Paul, and impressed Paul fans everywhere.
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